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Super Saturday Thoughts, VANITY
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/la/louisiana_republican_presidential_primary-4074.html ^
Posted on 03/05/2016 10:23:20 PM PST by PA-LU Student
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Gravis_Louisiana_Republicans.pdf
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: cruz; election; trump
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>I just wondered if anybody else had noticed something. In Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, and Kentucky Trump went in tonight with Yuuge leads, and in Kansas had a 12 point lead which dropped after super Tuesday to only six points, and Cruz won by 25 points. In Maine Cruz won by 13 points. In Louisiana Trump went in with and average lead of 15 points, under preformed in his numbers and only won by 4 points, and in Kentucky was leading by Yuuge numbers according to Trump Supporters and only won that one by four. It seems like the Donald is starting to lose, but that can't be because he always wins and never loses. Tonight was a big night for Cruz. He essentially kept the states he lost in close, thereby mitigating the delegate gains of Trump, and then beat Donald handily in the other two states making delegate jumps to catch Trump. He now is only behind Donald by 75 delegates, which lets be honest is very clearly with in the realm of competitiveness. It also seems to blunt the momentum of Trump. Of course that is my humble opinion. What does every one else think?
To: PA-LU Student
Trump fatigue setting in.
2
posted on
03/05/2016 10:24:54 PM PST
by
kik5150
(Cruz argued 9 times before Supreme Court judges. Trump argues with beauty pageant judges.)
To: PA-LU Student
looks like cruz won 64 delegates to trumps 49.
3
posted on
03/05/2016 10:25:52 PM PST
by
fooman
(Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
To: PA-LU Student
Trump has alienated the supporters of all he has attacked with insults. As the field narrows, those other voters are going to Cruz. When the race gets down to either Trump or Cruz, Cruz will win.
4
posted on
03/05/2016 10:27:50 PM PST
by
kik5150
(Cruz argued 9 times before Supreme Court judges. Trump argues with beauty pageant judges.)
To: kik5150
That has been my thought all along.
5
posted on
03/05/2016 10:28:51 PM PST
by
PA-LU Student
(Breath Donald..... I know it's hard)
To: PA-LU Student
Caucus cockery
I wouldn’t read much into it
Polls are usually wrong or someone is manipulating the vote totals someplace
Who know?
Or maybe the debate screwed Trump over. Fox took a chainsaw to him and did real damage
6
posted on
03/05/2016 10:29:52 PM PST
by
arl295
To: fooman
Another Freeper, who is a Trump supporter, mentioned to me that people like to vote for a winner. With the performance tonight, Trump’s “winning” image took a hit. He certainly will not run away with the nomination. The tide may be turning.
7
posted on
03/05/2016 10:30:56 PM PST
by
kik5150
(Cruz argued 9 times before Supreme Court judges. Trump argues with beauty pageant judges.)
To: kik5150
cruz isn’t going to win the north east or California or many other states
He has a ceiling
8
posted on
03/05/2016 10:31:04 PM PST
by
arl295
To: arl295
Caucus cockery
Trump seems to do well in states where Dems can cross over and vote, so there's that.
9
posted on
03/05/2016 10:33:22 PM PST
by
kik5150
(Cruz argued 9 times before Supreme Court judges. Trump argues with beauty pageant judges.)
To: PA-LU Student
It appears that Trump eked out the Louisiana win with early voting? Kasich has pulled ahead of Trump Michigan in the latest poll. Momentum shift?
To: PA-LU Student
On Super Tuesday Trump underperformed his polls by an average of 11.5%.
Today he underperformed by even more, an average of around 15%.
Can you imagine the disaster he would be in November if he underperformed by that much against Hillary?
To: arl295
cruz isnt going to win the north east or California
You're whistling past the graveyard.
The last poll showed Cruz AHEAD in California, and you can't get more Northeast than Maine, where Cruz SCHLONGED Trump.
12
posted on
03/05/2016 10:35:42 PM PST
by
kik5150
(Cruz argued 9 times before Supreme Court judges. Trump argues with beauty pageant judges.)
To: PA-LU Student
The faster the anti GOP-e forces can get rid of Rubio, the better.
13
posted on
03/05/2016 10:36:34 PM PST
by
icwhatudo
(Low taxes and less spending in Sodom and Gomorrah is not my idea of a conservative victory)
To: icwhatudo
The faster the anti GOP-e forces can get rid of Rubio, the better.
Kasich too!
14
posted on
03/05/2016 10:40:09 PM PST
by
kik5150
(Cruz argued 9 times before Supreme Court judges. Trump argues with beauty pageant judges.)
To: PA-LU Student
My thoughts are whoever wins it wins it, but hopefully it’s won in such a way that the GOP can’t snatch it from him.
Rubio and Kasich need to git.
15
posted on
03/05/2016 10:44:49 PM PST
by
chris37
(heartless)
To: PA-LU Student
Undecideds broke heavily for Cruz. Trump mostly hit close to his poll numbers, but Cruz greatly outperformed his. With Rubio and kasich in the race, Cruz likely won’t be able to beat trump consistently unless he can convince Rubio and Kasich voters to switch to him.
16
posted on
03/05/2016 10:45:01 PM PST
by
txjeep
To: kik5150
Psst...Kansas GOP had a closed Caucus.
17
posted on
03/05/2016 10:47:18 PM PST
by
lacrew
To: PA-LU Student
I’m going to break out the spreadsheet tomorrow and look at the polling numbers and results from Iowa through yesterday. Cruz is really over-performing pretty much across the board and I suspect there are a couple of reasons why.
The first suspicion I have is that people who decide in the last 48 hours are breaking for Cruz. That means that they have already decided that they aren’t going to vote for Trump, and they haven’t settled on the non-Trump candidate they want to vote for.
The second suspicion is a reverse Bradley effect. It’s happened a few times, and Cruz is the perfect candidate to benefit from it. Since Cruz has been vilified by the press, and now by several other candidates, people may be hesitant to admit to a pollster that they plan to vote for someone who is considered undesirable.
I’ll look and see exactly how much, if at all, he is really over-performing.
18
posted on
03/05/2016 10:48:02 PM PST
by
Anitius Severinus Boethius
(www.wilsonharpbooks.com - Sign up for my new release e-mail and get my first novel for free)
To: Anitius Severinus Boethius
I would be very interested in seeing that spreadsheet.
19
posted on
03/05/2016 10:53:10 PM PST
by
PA-LU Student
(Breath Donald..... I know it's hard)
To: PA-LU Student
Droves of people are deciding at the very last moment... and it’s getting incrementally less for Trump. His novelty shine may be coming off upon closer inspection.
20
posted on
03/05/2016 11:05:46 PM PST
by
AmericanInTokyo
( MSM: Rig primary coverage for weakest candidate: McCain/Romney/Trump. Then destroy, post-convention)
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