Votes matter. They’re not the only thing to matter. Organization matters. Endorsements matter. But, winning and winning big develops momentum.
In leaked internal polls and in the few public polls we have, Trump moved ahead of Cruz in Indiana, after New York. They were maybe tied in Indiana prior to New York. The Northeast Super Tuesday primaries didn’t help Cruz in Indiana. The VP announcement grabbed some attention away from Trump’s big win, and so was helpful. But, Cruz needs the endorsement of the Governor, as he got in Wisconsin, to have a realistic chance of winning on Tuesday.
If Trump wins Indiana, he cannot be prevented from winning on the first ballot. Cruz has to win Indiana and then win California to stop Trump from a first ballot victory, and Cruz is the underdog in each.
And the truth is that momentum counts....the big wins for Trump generate a get on board feeling. People want to back the winner. It takes die hard supporters to go to the alls and KNOW that you are voting for someone who will never win. That changes the outlook significantly