If you look at Nate Silver’s 538 site... Trump has a 40% shot to win it... Here’s the interesting thing... If you look down at the “Winding path to 270 votes”, the only additional state Trump needs to lead is NH. Once he goes ahead, consistently, in NH, then he goes over the 50%. Nate Silver will be forced to project Trump as the front runner.
Exactly. I think NH is the last domino yet to fall. Once it goes, and the polls are tied there now, Trump should be favored in poll analysis.