I care what the polls say... even if most are garbage
I care about the polls also.
I think we should establish a policy around here of “let those who obsess over the polls do so” and “let those who don’t, continue to not”.
I’m the same way - I care what they say even though I know they are garbage.
Polls are like home appraisals: the appraiser wants to please whoever is paying for the appraisal.
Years ago when I was going through a divorce. I was going to buy out my ex’s half of the house, so we each got separate appraisals. The first question the appraisers asked is - what is the appraisal for? Mine came back $150k and hers came back $350k. We split the difference and see $250. Later we found out both appraisers were from the same firm. Go figure.
Same with real estate sales, the buyer’s appraisal is always low and the seller’s is always high. The bank’s is always low; the insurance company’s is always high so they can justify high premiums. Until they have to pay a claim, then it’s low.
The pollsters and the appraisers say whatever the person paying wants them to say. They have zero professional integrity or scientific curiosity.
All the pollsters have to do to establish their credibility is throw out an honest guess a couple days before the election - anything before that is designed to fit the narrative of whoever is paying for the poll.
Pollsters earn their money in various ways, some direct and some indirect. But when you see a pollster being invited as a regular guest or panelist on some network news show, that is just another way of getting paid - so you can’t trust there is an ounce of independence there.