Ukraine: military situation update - June 25, 2023
[ Unique Chance | Ukrainians Seize a Great Opportunity Brought by Wagner Mutiny ]
••Day 487: Jun 25
The unexpectedly rapid and peaceful reconciliation of the conflict between the Russian Ministry of Defense and the private military company the Wagner Group, especially as there is no confirmation that Prigozhin’s demands were met, left many people very suspicious.
Some analysts started building theories as to how such a large-scale act could be used to achieve strategic objectives and concluded that this would be a great opportunity to redeploy forces to the Kharkiv region and take the city into a pocket, as the returning from Moscow Wagner forces were very close to the Belgorod region.
It is reasonable to some extent to consider such a possibility because both sides are monitoring each other’s movement of troops very tightly, and the only way to show up somewhere unexpectedly is by tricking the other party into thinking that they don’t need to care about it.
However, firstly, it’s not like all of the Wagners were heading north - most troops were occupying Rostov and military objects nearby. So, the Wagner forces got dispersed.
Secondly, there is not much of Wagners left anyways.
According to Prigozhin, he had 85 thousand troops to take Bakhmut, and it took him more than 8 months and mind-boggling losses to take it.
The Kharkiv front is 10 times bigger, Kharkiv itself is 10 times bigger, and Ukrainians have 10s of 1,000s of soldiers in the region.
So, even if all Wagner units suddenly redeployed here, the prospect of a quick victory would be virtually non-existent.
Besides, Russian forces had already tried to take Kharkiv with more troops and under much better conditions, and it ended up in a disaster.
Lastly, Wagner forces were initially in Luhansk, so making a several-day detour towards Moscow is less productive.
And this is where other analysts concluded that, in reality, Wagner forces are redeploying to Belarus to attack Kyiv or Lviv. On the surface, this also ties in nicely with the fact that the President of Belarus, Lukashenko, got involved and eventually offered shelter to Prigozhin.
However, all previous points remain relevant counterarguments here as well: dispersing troops by occupying Rostov would be counterproductive, the front line is 30 times bigger, Ukrainians have 10s of 1,000s of soldiers on guard, Russians already tried anyways, and here there are also dense forests, which prove to be an extremely hard barrier.
On top of that, during the mutiny, Russian forces lost 7 aircraft and 15 pilots.
Half of them are extraordinarily valuable.
And this is not taking into account the blown-up Wagner convoys and violent engagements with the regular Russian forces that were caught on camera and shown in my previous video.
Nonetheless, one thing the Wagner mutiny actually achieved was completely cutting off supplies of the eastern Russian Group of forces for at least two days and confusing the soldiers on the ground, of which Ukrainians successfully took advantage.
Ukrainian fighters from the Bakhmut region reported that when Prigozhin posted a video and said that the regular Russian forces bombed Wagner camps and the Wagner forces were marching on Moscow, the Russian radio exchanges became completely wild.
Eventually, it caused a series of violent confrontations between the regular Russian formations and a few Wagner units that were still in Bakhmut to help.
First of all, Ukrainian fighters from the 24th Assault Brigade reported that Ukrainians finally breached the Russian defense in the tree line along the road and started storming the last remaining fortification on their way to Klishchiivka, namely, the infamous trench network on the hill.
Secondly, after clearing the tree line, Ukrainians could attack Russian positions in the forest from 2 sides, and by the end of the second day, the Ukrainian 5th Assault Brigade reportedly cleared up to 40% of the forest.
Lastly Ukrainians finally pushed Russians from the remaining positions west of the canal and some sources even claimed that the Ukrainians made a few attempts to establish control over Kurdiumivka and Ozarianivka.
Russian forces reportedly retreated to the western part of the village to create a buffer zone which at the moment remains a gray zone
However, the biggest news by far is that Ukrainian crossed the Dnipro River and established a bridgehead on the eastern bank near the Antonivskyi Bridge.
Geolocated footage confirms that Ukrainian boats have deployed Ukrainian forces to this region.
Russian forces tried to chase Ukrainians away with direct assault, however, they faced tough resistance.
Ukrainians posted footage of Ukrainian helicopters targeting Russian assault units.
Eventually, Russian sources reported that the units on the ground got almost encircled, which is why they decided to retreat.
Zelinski stated that the Wagner Mutiny created unique opportunities for the Ukrainians that
may lead to the biggest turning points in the history of this war.
••Kherson Oblast:
Fighting in Oleshky. UA wants to maintain as much secrecy here as possible. All videos here come from the Russian side. One video we see a Russian BTR with some troops near some UA positions, but the video stops and we do not see what happened.
Russian Mil Bloggers say 50 UA troops landed over 3 days. There were lots of losses from artillery fires, and the Russians were forced to retreat.
The UA continues to send more troops & supplies, even heavy ammo used. Russian artillery is unable to precisely target UA boats because they are too fast, and the river his narrow.
UA is using jammers so Russians are unable to launch FPV or standard drones. They requested aviation support, but they went unanswered.
Any actions by Russians will cause UA artillery responses. UA troops are hiding mostly under the bridge.
==
Robotyne:
UA moving closer to the important road which goes to Tokmak.
==
Zelensky:
Current operations are the main preparation for the main strike still to come.
Budenov:
Not satisfied with mining the cooling and reactor buildings, 4 out of 6 ZNPP power units are mined with explosives and ready to explode - Budanov
Russia has completed preparations for a terrorist attack at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. According to him, nuclear reactors without cooling can melt down in a period of 10 hours to 14 days.
“The situation has never been as serious as it is now,” Kirill Budanov stressed.
https://t.me/pilotblog/5012
See below for consequences of blowing these reactors.
==
Yesterday it was reported that Wagners shot down a Russian Air Force Ilyushin Il-18, but it was actually an Ilyushin Il-22 which is modified with surveillance and command plane for Russian generals - it carries a crew of 10, and usually a one or more generals.
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Prigozhin began his march when he was denied direct access to Putin. He didn’t want to get rid of Putin. Wagners took over the Rostov airfield and robbed the pilots.
==
Kremlin leaks say shortly Shoigu will resign and his place will be taken by Duman, Putin’s ex-security manager, and currently the governor of the Tula Oblast.
Duman met with Prigozhin yesterday and released a poster with Prigozhin saying “Plans mean silence”. It is said that there is some sort of Prigozhin plan. We’ll see. [ Could it be connected to the plan to blow the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant? ]
==
Ukraine signs agreement to get 45 more Gepard anti-air systems. They are very effective agains any low flying drone or helicopter,
[ Russia is a 14th century feudal empire running a gas station with nukes in the backroom. ]
He addressed world leaders [ yesterday ] with a warning that Russia is preparing to undermine [ destroy ] the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant.
“Our intelligence received information that Russia is considering a scenario of a terrorist attack at the ZNPP with a release of radiation.
They have prepared everything for this.
Unfortunately, I have repeatedly had occasion to remind that radiation does not know state borders, and who it hits, is determined only by the direction of the wind.
We pass on all available information to our partners, all evidence - Europe, America, China, Brazil, India, Africa, the Arab world - all countries and international organizations should know this.
This time it should not be like with Kakhovskaya [ Nova Kakhovka ]. The world has been warned.”
==
Russian officials said everything is going according to the Plan & Prigozhin agrees.
==
[ Think of this disaster as Chernobyl times 6, only worse as the reactor explosions will be deliberate. This is not hyperbole, over reaction or anything of the sort. Why mine something like this if one does not, at some point, plan to detonate the mines?
Maps of the Chernobyl effected Zones:
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/chornobyl_radiation96.jpg
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e0/7d/73/e07d7397c6d629c6f1c6a8e294c31085.jpg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster
##•• It bears repeating: if the Russians and Putin go through with this plan, the release will render Ukraine and several surrounding countries uninhabitable, and if the cloud moves over Europe, it too will become uninhabitable. This will be the worst crisis in all of human history, bar the Mt. Toba eruption 74,000 years ago. ••## ]
••Terrorist Strelkov:
“This rebellion showed how easily a 10,000-strong heavily armed army can pass 700 km in one day and find itself on the threshold of Moscow without encountering any resistance” -Girkin summed up the failed military coup
Main:
Russia is absolutely not protected and is on the verge of collapse.
If Shoigu and Gerasimov still manage to keep their posts, then they will no longer have such huge power.
The military leadership was completely absent. Defense of Moscow - 12 bags of sand and an AGS firing point.
There are a lot of claims against Wagner: the armed men went to Moscow, aircraft were shot down and pilots died.
The population is not ready for war.
In the end, the “angry patriot” called on Putin to start acting as the supreme commander in chief or resign.
==
Rivnopil was liberated according to Ukrainian army statement
==
Germany plans to deploy an additional 4,000 troops in Lithuania on a long-term basis.
In addition, NATO will change the status of the air force mission for the protection of the skies of the Baltic countries from police to combat.
Thus, NATO fighters will be able to participate in hostilities and will be integrated into the defense plans of Lithuania.
There are some rumors that Putin has the nuke plan on the table. But those are just rumors…
==
Russian officials said everything is going according to the Plan & Prigozhin agrees.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin will give a television address to the nation late Monday”
