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I agree with your odds, maybe 60%...I say in our country there may be little sporadic attacks, maybe even a plane being shot down. I do know it seems they are really targeting assainations overseas, the ME especially.

We know they targeted Pakistan Mushareff. I heard the entire Saudi family is marked, and possibly Spain's PM and the following:

Report: Italy probes possible PM plot
12/23/03 06:09 AM, EST
Italian police are investigating a possible plot against Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi after phone taps of suspected Islamic extremists suggested they might be planning an attack, an Italian newspaper reported on Tuesday.

Egyptian foreign minister attacked in Jerusalem
12/22/03 10:57 AM, EST
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher was hospitalized in good condition after being attacked Monday in Jerusalem near the Al Aqsa Mosque, one of Islam's most sacred sites, Israeli authorities said.

From CNN :

Nations brace for holiday attacks
12/23/03 16:54 PM, EST
The U.S. government has received intelligence that al Qaeda is planning attacks against U.S. interests in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen and Kenya, and Turkish police are warning of a "third wave" of terror in that country.

Battlefield Chicago? In the Padilla case, a federal court says no
12/23/03 13:00 PM, EST
Sometimes a single word is remarkably telling. In the federal appeals court ruling that denied the Bush administration the power to unilaterally detain U.S. citizen Jose Padilla indefinitely as an enemy combatant, that word is "captured."

Airports to fingerprint international visitors
12/23/03 08:06 AM, EST
Foreigners entering U.S. airports and seaports -- except those from Western Europe and a handful of other countries -- will soon have their fingerprints scanned and their photographs snapped as part of a new program designed to enhance border security.

Susan Candiotti: Seaport 'a healthy target for terrorists'
12/22/03 11:13 AM, EST
Security is being increased at airports, borders and ports as the nation stands at "Code Orange," the second-highest alert level for terrorist threats. The upgrade from "Code Yellow," or elevated status, followed warnings from the federal government that al Qaida may be plotting attacks on America during the holidays. The new designation indicates a high risk.

Australian warning amid security review
12/22/03 01:14 AM, EST
Australia is reviewing its security and has issued new warnings for Australians travelling to the United States and Britain after the Washington raised its terror alert to the second highest level.