Here's an article by Iowa's leading political columnist regarding the impact of Saddam's capture on the results of the Iowa Caucuses:
By DAVID YEPSEN
Register Political Columnist
12/15/2003
It looked like a bad hair day for Saddam Hussein on Sunday. Real bad. It was also a bad day for Democratic presidential candidates, especially Howard Dean. The capture of Saddam Hussein gave President Bush a big boost toward re-election, and the very premise of Dean's candidacy was rattled.
Dean's pro-war opponents, particularly Richard Gephardt, may profit in the Iowa caucuses. For sure, many Iowa Democrats are likely to reassess just which standard-bearer they want leading their party's ticket against Bush - one who opposed the very war that captured Saddam, or one who supported it.
* Americans were jolted awake Sunday morning by the good news from Iraq. For weeks, we've all flicked on radios and televisions in the morning to be hammered by yet another story about quagmires, bad intelligence or the death of yet another American.
Sunday was different.
"We got him," was the word from Ambassador Paul Bremer. Yeah. "We" got him. Specifically, a bunch of young American troops got him. Soldiers - who've been watching their comrades be picked off by terrorist attacks and suicide bombers for weeks - got him. In doing so, they rid the world of one of the most evil people of all time. Saddam's coming trial will illuminate the enormity of that evil.(snip)
* Politically, Saddam's capture fundamentally alters the 2004 Democratic presidential campaign. The front-runner in that campaign, Dean, has hitched his candidacy to opposition to the war in Iraq. He's spent months blasting Bush for fighting the war in Iraq and for failing to capture Saddam.
All that changes now. Suddenly, Democrats must ask if the rationale behind Dean's candidacy remains valid. America has won a huge battle in a war he did not want to fight. Do Democrats remain with his candidacy? Some will. Others won't.
For all the recent buzz about Dean, it's important to remember that even before Sunday's news, about two-thirds of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers were for some other candidate or were undecided. That means they had some doubts about Dean before Sunday, and Saddam's capture could easily reinforce them. As Joe Lieberman pointed out Sunday: "If Howard Dean had his way, Saddam Hussein would still be in power today, not in prison, and the world would be a more dangerous place."
Not only are Bush's poll ratings likely to skyrocket, but so will support for the war. That means Iowa Democrats - the first Democrats in the country to have a big say about who their party will choose to run against Bush - must now ask if they want to continue fueling the Dean bandwagon or whether they'd be better off supporting a candidacy based on other premises. On the day after Sad-dam's capture, the pro-war votes cast by Gephardt, John Kerry, Lieberman and John Edwards suddenly look a little better. Gephardt, for example, wants the campaign conducted on economic issues.
After Sunday, perhaps that's a greater vulnerability for Bush. But even the economic indicators, stock market, unemployment rates and views of the economy are slowly starting to improve. If that continues, Bush's re-election becomes even more likely.
It's way too early to predict a Bush win, despite the capture of Saddam and the improving economic picture. While history teaches that presidents benefit politically when their armies win, it also teaches they can be defeated if they fail to deliver on the economy and too many Americans remain nervous about it. The war on terrorism could also sour between now and November. All wars ebb and flow. While we'll again celebrate when bin Laden is captured or killed, what happens, for example, if there is another major terrorist attack on the United States? Do Americans rally "round the president as we did after 9/11? Or do we blame Bush for letting it happen again? No one knows.
While Sunday had no good political news for Democrats, they were all giving Bush some sound political advice: Act magnanimously in this victory and use it to bring other nations into the fight against terrorism and into the effort to rebuild Iraq. Some of these nations probably want to go with the winner and are looking for a way to atone for having wimped out on the war in the first place.
If Bush took a little of that advice in the coming weeks, he'd be even tougher to beat come November.
http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c2229999/23016456.html