Posted on 11/07/2006 2:53:47 PM PST by ohiobuckeye1997
Bill Cunningham was just on Hannity's show and said dem turnout in Ohio Urban areas is in teens and 20's and rural Rep. turnout is in the 70's and 80's according to a source in Sec. of State's office.... great news if true.
Looks like the Dems will be suing to keep Ohio open any time now...
But a lot more people live in urban areas?
That seems VERY unlikely to me, but I hope Willie C. has it right.
Potentially huge...but I'm keeping my powder dry. Thanks for info.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus
For those who don't know Gary, he was just joking.
Oh ye of little faith Blackwell was just getting the final numbers from Rove.
I hope so. I just literally hung up in shock on my best friend. I'm going to have to call her back to apologize. She told me that she and her husband (STAUNCH CONSERVATIVES) and their friends refused to vote for DeWine this year.
The RNC is sending this memo to surrogates this afternoon.
NATIONAL
Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote) Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.
ARIZONA
There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day – and 41% of the state has already voted. In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)
CONNECTICUT
In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.
FLORIDA
Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day – and 36% of the state has already voted. Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)
MARYLAND:
Republican absentees had pulled within even of Democrats before Election Day – in a state with a 2:1 dem registration advantage. Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 3% higher than Dem precincts off 2004 turnout (51-43).
MISSOURI
Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 2.6% higher than Dem precincts (42.3% to 39.7%) based off of the 2004 vote. 2004 exit polls had a 3% dem bias.
OHIO: In 2004, exit polling was off by almost 9% (they had Kerry winning by almost 7%, we won by 2%) TENNESSEE (not much to say here…turnout looks against us, no exit polling from ’04 and absentee data is from MT data) In precinct turnout tracking, dem precincts are turning out 1% higher off 2004 vote. We estimate a 1% advantage on the absentee voting.
VIRGINIA:
In 2004, exit polling had the presidential within 1%, yet President Bush won by over 8%. Of the precincts we are tracking, GOP precincts are turning out at 48% of 2004’s turnout while Dem precincts are only at 41%.
This is going to be a very fun night. :-) I'm getting ready to call the Irey campaign, to see if they have any news.
Just got off the phone with someone in the Irey campaign. Not much information at this point. Voter turnout in the district appears to have at least matched 2002 levels (when the big draw was the governor's race). Anecdotal reports from poll watchers spoke of a fairly smooth voting process and a lot of excitement out in the field.
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