Hurricane Dean approaching the Lesser Antilles

NOAA ^ | 2007-08-12 | (mariner's 1-2-3 rule chart)

[SouthTexas]

[No Blue States]

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[Aquamarine]

That link was an active animation (loop).

Here's another (active) loop of the Atlantic which shows both systems.

Atlantic Satellite

[Clive]

It looks like the 5 day cone is shifting to the south.

Initially the forecast track was aiming at Puerto Rico. Now it is aiming at Jamaica.

[SouthTexas]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 151438
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SO FAR THE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25-
KNOT WINDS. ON THE OTHER HAND....VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW.
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
12 KNOTS. THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY PACKED AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 25.4N 93.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 25.8N 95.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 26.5N 97.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 27.0N 99.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Clive]

I am taking the liberty of copying your reply 184 to the thread on Tropicl Depression Five

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

BUMPING for updates.

[Clive]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 152032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910 MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR... AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...47.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[sig226]

I know, but I couldn’t think of a better way to describe what I saw. There was a brief flash of purple in the storm’s center when I watched it, but I couldn’t see it at the end of the animation. The latest one you posted looks very disorganized, which, I think, is a good thing.

[Aquamarine]

Last night when I put the link up there was a definite purple eye, it wasn’t as prominent today. Agree that Dean doesn’t look too threatening yet.

Hope we can get some rain from Erin here in Georgia, it’s been so dry and hot for two weeks now.

[Clive]

Tropical Storm Dean is now Hurricane Dean

I hava asked the moderator to change the name of this thread accordingly.

[Clive]

As NautiNurse has started a live thread, My suggestion is that this thread should end and that further discussion should be on that thread, to wit:

Hurricane Dean Live Thread