Posted on 11/10/2008 7:00:06 PM PST by sybilll
Celente is the economic equivalent to “Dr. Doom” Ed Dames.
I see possible trade wars leading to shrinkage of the economy. The rats are making some terrible noises about trade agreements. They want to incorporate labor standards in the agreements. I do not think that foreign governments will agree to our ridiculous labor standards. In addition, the massive subsidies of our domestic industries will lead to trade complaints and retaliation. The confiscatory tax rates and restrictive labor laws will discourage foreign investment. If we stop buying foreign goods, foreign governments will stop buying our treasury bills. Our currency loses values and hyper inflation follows.
save
What’s wrong with trade wars?
It sure beats unilateral trade surrender — which is what we’ve been doing.
We fight a trade war, or we cease to exist.
With all this doom and gloom, I’ve yet to meet, or even know personally, anyone who has lost their job, their home or insurance. I just got a job first time out after only one interview.
I remember back in the Depression, it was so bad, that when you turned on the TV to watch FDR, you couldn’t watch him for 5 minutes without being interrupted by soap commercials!
I follow most of what you are saying, but one basic question - many if not most of us do our larger financial transactions and even smaller ones via ATM or electronic debit transactions.
Why can’t the government in such a crazy scenario leverage its what’s left of the assets - massive land holdings, armaments, buildings, everything to ‘create’ more monye, IOU’s with which they continue to ride? They can always invest in more printing capacity in the Bureau of Engraving and Printing and catch up. Tell me if this is a ludicrous picture - you obviously have a lot of knowledge in this area.
Not likely that terrorist would set off a nuke in my small town but I live with in less that 80 miles from two large ones. It will still have a heavy effect on me and my family.
This Country is in a world of hurt as it is and all we have are a bunch of liberal Dims running it. The only thing I have faith in now is myself and the All Mighty.
ah....a little light at the end of the tunnel.....
okay.....Peter Schiff is saying the same things about a great depression....
can someone tell me how its going to come?....do stores just close?...then trucking systems?...then maybe the docks slow down?.....
what happens to our money in the bank?...can we ever get it out?
what about local propterty taxes?...would they actually take your house if you didn't have the money?....what if most people didn't have the money?
now...what to do NOW to take care of ourselves?.....you can buy food only so far in advance.....and gettin out of debt sure...but what good does getting out of debt do when you have no money coming in for property taxes, medicine etc...
Thank you. This should probably be bumped for the morning crowd. I just happened to find this at night. I posted this at DU, just for open discussion, and promptly got banned.
otoh...I've always gotten a lot of credit card offers, and the offers are changing a little bit.....the balance transfer cards seem to have disapeared mostly, and today after careful reading I found out one that offered NO INTEREST on "new" purchases IF you transferred your other balances..( a new angle rather than the free balance transfers we are all used to)....last time I checked, I had a credit score about 780 or so, so I know I have good credit....
maybe things are changing...
the old Washington Mutual had a cd now up to 5% for up to TEN YEARS.
With all due respect, do you watch the news? Foreclosures at an all-time high; corporate bankruptcies at an all-time high; unemployment at a 14 year high. Most of these are from well paid persons in the job force for years, not a first time worker making $12 per hour. My fiance lost his job of 29 years with Boeing, so, yes, I know personally.
I vote that if you’ve been a FReeper less than a year, you can’t post new threads.
Just a thought.
Of course I watch the news. I was speaking of my OWN experience of not knowing anyone personally who has lost their job or home.
I am not shunning you. Keep your chin up. They are hard on all the newbies. Just ignore them and post reputable post.....(I like this post and the discussion)
Bump for later review
Sounds like you are really being drawn to the Lord...may He help you be His hands and feet to others while you are able to extend fellowship to them.
My one caution: be careful you read Scripture in context and do not allow an emotion or subjective point of view be your guide.
Also, don’t forget to practice His love to others. I find myself constantly being reminded...I can’t just read His word and marinate in it, I also have to show love to my fellow man through it. :)
I’ll pray for you! :)
Shunned, no. Carefully considered, yes.
Relax, Francis.
Leverage only exists when there are buyers. Buyers can only buy with investment money, not the essential money they need to survive. This is the problem with T-bills.
Right now, the $700B bailout money is being paid for with T-bills. This means that $700B of investor money had to come from somewhere. And this might be the “last gasp” of the T-bills. Perhaps the last big chunk of investment money left in the world.
In past, even during a tight market, investors were willing to put their money into T-bills as a last ditch, even at low or (recently no) yield, because it was regarded as the safest possible place to “store” your money, in the one institution that “couldn’t” go out of business.
At some point, they have to redeem their bonds, because in an extended downturn, what was investment money, they now need as essential money. When they cash in their bonds, the US government has to pay both the principal and the yield. In past, to do so, it has issued even more T-bills. You see the problem?
If T-bills collapse, and the long term T-bills are close to doing so, the Treasury will tell the government that it has no more money to spend. Because government departments forward their bills to the Treasury to pay, large parts of the government will have to shut down, so that the money budgeted for them can be used to support the essential parts of government.
The big six expenses of the US government are Social Security (21%), Medicare and Medicaid (21%), Defense(20%), “Discretionary Spending” (18%), “Other Mandatory Spending” (11%), and the interest on the national debt, about (10%) of tax revenues.
Obviously, direct payments to and for individuals add up to almost half the budget, and while with time, those payments could have been rationalized without hurting people, today it will have to start with “means testing”. That is, if you have money, the US government will not give you any more. A lot of people will get very angry about that.
Barney Frank has called for a 25% cut in Defense spending, and though I am very pro-military, unless the US gets into a war, it is likely there will be no choice but to do cuts that severe.
Ironically, the biggest shortage may be of physical money, at home in a safe place. There is a good chance of a “paper run”, in which banks will have plenty of money, but have no paper money to give out for their virtual money.
They will have to issue debit cards so that their customers can spend their money, assuming that bank checking has likewise been killed as a means. But many payments cannot be made by debit card.
For this reason, debit money will still retain its value, that is $1=$1, but paper money and coinage will have tremendous deflation. You might be able to buy a dollar’s worth of goods for a dime.
To put this in real terms, some years ago in California, the phone company had a problem with returning pay phone coins to the banks, and within two weeks, all normal coinage except pennies had disappeared.
Since interest and yields of most investments are tiny right now, it would be to your advantage to get a few thousand dollars and keep them at home, instead of in the bank. Both paper and coins in some very safe place.
The risk you face would be fire and theft, but otherwise it is painless. If things normalize, or there is suddenly inflation, you can immediately use your money. But if things go bad, it could be precious indeed.
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