” in this case the Nordyke twins certificates were entered into Vital Statistics AFTER Obam’s certificate was”
how do we know that? they could have all been in a stack.
LIFO: list in the stack, first out off the stack.
We know that the year-to-date of that week in the EIGHTH month of 1961 against the number of births per day, average from the US Census data for Hawaii that year gives sequence numbers in the range of the Nordyke and Obama certificates.
That means sequence numbers in a year go from low to high. It would be very poor or very irregular clerical practice not to assign the certificate numbers (or take a pre-numbered blank certificate from a stack) in a haphazard order. Once a pattern is in place it is followed. It is most likely that the sequence is in order of acceptance.
Obama’s certificate shows it was accepted and signed days before the Nordyke twins. It would have a serial number before theirs. Instead in is three certificate numbers later.
For 1961 the US 1962 Statistical Abstract reports 17592 births recorded in Hawaii. That is an average 48.33 births a day. August the 11th is the date the twins’ certificates are signed in, registered. August 11th is the 223rd day of that year. That means — not allowing for seasonality or other effects, also ignoring how the registrar handles the beginning of the year — the possible supposed birth sequence range for that date is 10729 to 10778.
The Nordyke twins, born on the 5th, are registered on the 11th as 10637 and 10638. Those sequence numbers are two days worth of births behind what would be expected for the 11th.
Obama certificate shows that he was born on the 4th, and registered on the 8th. His cert sequence number is 10641. The possible supposed birth sequence range for the 8th is 10633-10584. Obama’s cert number is a half-day’s worth of births ahead of the birth seqence.
There is a seasonality in births, but in modern times it has varied. Generally the two periods of peak births are spring: January to March, and fall: September to November.
Two things *suggest* a forgery in this. One: the out-of-sequence birth certificate number for Obama’s certificate. Two: the closeness of the cert number to what would be guessed for a registration date of the 8th.
I say *suggest*, because as you yourself ask — there are explanations. I don’t like to imagine that a clerical bureau keeping vital records would not follow careful procedure, but it is possible.