The huge misses tend to stand out, though, and there have been some huge misses. Joe Montana was a third rounder. Dan Marino, although taken in the first round, was the fifth QB taken in his draft. Tom Brady was a sixth rounder. Brett Favre was a second rounder.
Course, Favre had to do a lot of changing to become a top QB. In Atlanta, IIRC, he had four passes, two interceptions, no completions, one pass returned for a TD, and a sack for an eleven yard loss. He was also noted as being a party animal who showed up hung over and slept in team meetings. So, some of it has to do with guys growing up after they get drafted.
Exactly. I think a lot of it too has to do with the fact that the pro game is totally different from the college game in a lot of ways. The biggest difference is that a lot of players are able to dominate the college game through sheer athletic ability - they’re simply the strongest or fastest guy on the field. In the NFL, though, EVERYONE is strong and fast, and you have to play accordingly. There’s a reason the spread option offense - so increasingly popular in college - doesn’t work in the NFL. It’s tough to evaluate a guy’s talent by watching him play what is in many ways a different sport.
This is often true of running backs, where the NFL tends to reward grinding it out between the tackles instead of breaking loose big plays outside. One of the better examples is Reggie Bush. During his rookie year, he would often try to bounce plays outside, something he was successful at with USC because of his speed and agility. It never worked in the NFL because NFL tight ends and linebackers are often almost as fast and agile as he is. Bush turned out to be a success anyway because he was able to adapt and carve himself a niche in the Saints’ offense, but it quickly became apparent that he isn’t cut out to be an every down back in the NFL.