Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Rate at 10.0% in March (Forget what the govt. going to say it is.)

Gallup ^ | 3/31/2011 | Dennis Jacobe

[Signalman]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 10.0% in March -- down from 10.2% in mid-March and 10.3% at the end of February, but above the 9.8% at the end of January. U.S. unemployment was 10.4% at the end of March a year ago.>br>

[Nachum]

The list, ping

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http://www.nachumlist.com/

[scooby321]

We now get are unemployment numbers from Gallup and inflation numbers from Wal Mart.

Government's numbers made up.

[Tzimisce]

Hope and change is missing some spots.....

[pinqy]

Forget what the government is going to say??? You do realize that besides Gallup’s lack of seasonal adjustment, their sample size is about a third of BLS’s, excludes a large number of people BLS includes (BLS surveys 15 years and older, Gallup 18+, BLS doesn’t require a phone, Gallup does) and Gallup’s margin of error is +-0.7% and BLS’s is +-0.2%

Why on Earth would anyone think Gallup’s poll is more accurate?

[underbyte]

BLS has been pretty much a joke across the blogosphere with a lot of valid criticisms.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/04/bls-jobs-report-nonfarm-payroll-216000.html

U3 vs U6 - U6 used to be the standard

Inflation, who do you believe? Your lying eyes at the gas pump and food store or the government.

Relying on government bureaucrats for important data is like leaning on a reed.

[pinqy]

U-6 was never the standard.

First, the current definitions, since 1994: Employment and Earnings Feb 2011 page 178

Unemployed persons. All persons who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. Persons who were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off need not have been looking for work to be classified as unemployed.
Labor force. This group comprises all persons classified as employed or unemployed in accordance with the criteria described above.
Unemployment rate. The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the labor force.

The U-6 is defined as Unemployed plus all Marginally Attached plus part time for economic reasons as a percent of the Labor Force plus all marginally attached.

Now we'll go back to Employment and Earnings Nov 1993 page 142

Unemployed persons are all civilians who had no employment during the survey week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment some time during the prior 4 weeks. Persons who were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off or were waiting to report to a new job within 30 days need not be looking for work to be classified as unemployed.
The civilian labor force comprises all civilians classified as employed or unemployed in accordance with the criteria described above.
The civilian worker unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force.

Minor changes in definition, but nothing like the U-6

Next is before the 1967 change, which was significant: Employment and Earnings Dec 1966 page 86

Unemployed persons comprise all persons who did not work at all during the survey week and were looking for work, regardless of whether or not they were eligible for unemployment insurance. Also included as unemployed are those who did not work at all and (a) were waiting to be called back to a job from which they had been laid off; or (b) were waiting to report to a new wage or salary job within 30 days (and were not in school during the survey week); or (c) would have been looking for work except that they were temporarily ill or believed no work was available in their line of work or in the community.
The civilian labor force comprises the total of all civilians classified as employed or unemployed in accordance with the criteria described above.
The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force.

So that's a little vaguer (no time set for job search) and it does sort of include discouraged workers (though I'm told it was interviewer discretion) but certainly not all marginally attached and certainly not part time for economic reasons.

[Brown Deer]

0bama has been playing with the unemployment numbers. During 0bama’s administration, our population has grown by 6,324,000 and we have lost 3,460,000 jobs!

At the end of 2008, the labor force level was reported to be 154,669,000 or 50.7% of the population. Therefore, (154,669,000 - 143,324,000) / 154,669,000 = 7.3% unemployment.

To calculate the current unemployment rate in comparison, first get the current labor force, (0.507 X 311,122,000) = 157,878,000. Unemployment rate = (157,878,000 - 139,864,000) / 157,878,000 = 11.4% unemployment!

Dec 2008: 143,324,000 (population 304,798,000)
2009
Jan: 142,201,000
Feb: 141,687,000
Mar: 140,822,000
APr: 140,720,000
May: 140,292,000
Jun: 139,978,000
Jul: 139,794,000
Aug: 139,409,000
Sep: 138,791,000
Oct: 138,393,000
Nov: 138,590,000
Dec: 137,960,000 (population 307,439,000)
2010
Jan: 138,511,000
Feb: 138,698,000
Mar: 138,952,000
Apr: 139,382,000
May: 139,353,000
Jun: 139,092,000
Jul: 138,991,000
Aug: 139,267,000
Sep: 139,378,000
Oct: 139,084,000
Nov: 138,909,000
Dec: 139,206,000 (population 308,745,538)
2011
Jan: 139,323,000
Feb: 139,573,000
Mar: 139,864,000 (population 311,122,000)

sources:
http://data.bls.gov
http://www.census.gov