The other factor, is *where* the vote takes place, which is far more important than anything else.
Age categories are mostly meaningless because the US doesn’t vote that way. Only about 10 percent of any seats are in play in any given election season, and 10 percent of the electoral college will swing one way or the other.
What does Barry O bring to the table? Look at the outliers from the previous elections.
Colorado: Weld, Douglas, El Paso, Arapahoe, Adams
Nevada: Washoe, Clark
Indiana: Delaware, Madison, Hamilton, and Elkhart.
Florida: Osceola
North Carolina: Mecklemburg, Cumberland
Virginia: Chesterfield, Chesapeake, Henrico, Loudon and Prince William.
Ohio: Hamilton, Franklin, Lucas.
Obama’s entire victory revolved around less than 25 counties.
Osceola - 47.2 white, 34.4 hispanic, 10 black
Hamilton - 72.9 white, 23.43 black
Franklin - 75.4 white, 17.89 black
Lucas - 77.5 white, 16.98 black
Mecklenburg - 64 white, 27.9 black
Cumberland - 51 white, 36.7 black
Chesterfield - 65 white, 32 black
Chesapeake - 62 white, 30 black
Henrico - 69 white, 25 black
Prince William - 60 white, 21 black, 20 Hispanic
Loudon - 83 white, 7 black,
Clark - 60 white, 9 black, 22 hispanic
Washoe - 80 white
Delaware - 90 white
Madison - 90 white
Hamilton - 94 white
Elkhart - 86 white
Arapahoe - 79 white 11 percent hispanic
El Paso - 81 white 11 percent hispanic
Adams - 50 white 28 percent hispanic
Weld - 54 white 27 percent hispanic
Douglas - 92 white
I’d say Madison, Hamilton, Elkhard, El Paso, Arapahoe, Douglas, Delaware, Washoe, Loudon, Franklin, and Lucas counties, the major party switch was for boomer whites. So about half of Obama’s switch appeal came from boomer whites, and the rest from blacks and hispanics.