Posted on 08/20/2011 3:39:54 PM PDT by janetjanet998
details will be coming out shortly
the storm looks HUGE area wise
all models say SE US to Gulf coast hit...the main factors will be Cuba and Hispaniola strength wise(if it can aviod these landmasses or only spend a short time over them)
Models show excellent upper air and ocean heat factors otherwise
Good, now with a decent COC, maybe we can get some decent modeling data.
Bush’s fault.....
000
WTNT44 KNHC 202317
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOUND A SMALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER JUST SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB. THE PLANE ALSO MEASURED A
MAXIMUM WIND OF 53 KT AT 1400 FT AND BELIEVABLE WINDS OF ABOUT
45 KT FROM THE SFMR. THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
TROPICAL STORM IRENE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.
A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/19. A LARGE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO STEER IRENE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO
OR THREE DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THAT TIME AND CAUSE
IRENE TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A TRACK GENERALLY IN THE DIRECTION OF HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. THEREAFTER...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD ALLOW IRENE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS TO BRING THE STORM NORTH OF CUBA...WHILE
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN HAVE ENOUGH RIDGING IN PLACE TO KEEP THE
STORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NHC FORECAST WILL SPLIT THOSE TWO
IDEAS AND LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL VORTEX IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES AND IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IRENE IS MOVING
OVER RATHER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE STORM TO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING
HISPANIOLA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND IS RATHER
CHALLENGING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
RE-INTENSIFICATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF IRENE AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LAND
INTERACTION.
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO.
NOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD 800 PM
AST/0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL
BE THE FULL ADVISORY PACKAGE ISSUED AT 1100 PM AST/0300 UTC.
Note this statement in the NHC forecast:
“EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY”
They don’t have a handle on this one yet.
000
WTNT24 KNHC 202302
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN.
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT...
ANGUILLA...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...AND MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON
MONDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 58.5W AT 20/2300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......105NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 58.5W AT 20/2300Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 57.2W
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.4N 61.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.1N 64.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...105NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.7N 67.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N 69.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 24.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 58.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
this model agrees with this model
However this model has like the Obama administration... no freakin' clue
But like the typical Obama voter I couldn't care less
It’ll fizzle. Hispaniola and Cuba will tear up the storm.
Just another bit of bad luck? One more excuse for Bowbama!
It looks like we’re gonna get it but maybe it will just make a nice slow moving TD for you if it keeps a westward path over land. If it moves into the Gulf and survives long enough to hit TX I’m afraid it will be a monster.
Why are models different now when they couldn't even support a minimal storm off the FL coast just a couple of weeks ago? And Texas' best hope for a storm evaporated into nothingness before it even hit land!!!
Upon further review, we are up to “Irene”. Emily is long gone....
Holy Crap,Does not look good for SO Florida!!
As we move later in the season, away from the heat of summer, the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico water is warmer relative to the air mass above it. Past the summer solstice, the Earth's air mass cools faster than the water in the oceans. The energy is in the warm water.
Right now, the storm is larger than the State of Florida.
“Holy Crap,Does not look good for SO Florida!!
Right now, the storm is larger than the State of Florida.”
Looks nasty,Speaking of the devil while I was looking a Squall (unrelated) blew through here.
LOL, that’s what our family says !
Are they naming more storms now? Isn’t it a bit early in the season to be up to Irene?
There's two things causing the storm names to advanc faster.
The valid reason is that the satellites are becoming more capable of measuring and validating storm conditions that were missed or not know about in years past. Today, every storm that reaches tropical storm intensity is measured and named. Years ago, many passed without notice.
The other reason is that there are liberals working in government that want the accolades that come with supporting 'global warming' and more hurricanes each year. Those people are giving names to thunderstorms!
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