Hey. I’m as skeptical of ALL polls as anyone. But having said that, we can’t really have it both ways. On the one hand we say that Obama is gonna slaughter Romney while on the other we say that a poll showing just that is obviously wrong.
While, like I said, I am skeptical (plus it is very early), this and other polls seem to be bearing out what we have been saying to the GOP Elite ... Romney is gonna get it handed to him by Obama. Maybe this poll isn’t that far off and maybe, just maybe, we know what we are talking about.
Given an adequately random sample, 1000 is a perfectly valid sample size even for the national electorate, and actually accuracy really doesn't increase if the sample size gets much larger than 2000.
Have you taken, say, an introductory statistics course?
Credible scientific polls have difficulty being correct when people are rapidly changing their minds, but otherwise, despite the abuse they take here from people who would rather believe their own wishful thinking, the general lesson is they are remarkably accurate.
Other than completely worthless straw polls and online polls, the only actual "rigged" poll I've seen that was supposedly legitimate enough to make the RCP listing was the Insider Advantage poll for Newsmax that purported to show Florida "breaking hard" for Newt.
Carter beat the crap out of Reagan, too.
That is, right up until the time people actually got to vote.
If we get a Romney/anybody else - we get Obama again... just another GOP-E RINO ticket that conservative voters won’t vote for.
Does anyone actually trust a poll from ABC, CBS, NBC,or CNN?
They polled adults anybody over the age of 18!!!!
and that new poll saying that 50% of Americans approve of Obama? Really? so half of America isn’t complaining over 3.60 a gallon gas and much higher food prices as their home values continue to decline?
I’m beginning to believe that they are not polling anyone. If they do, they throw out the results and sit around in a group and make up numbers to justify the Food Stamp President. Everything is spin for the Food Stamp President, but that is to be expected when he is your boss.
and when are we gonna start seeing Romney/VP Polls? they never bring up what the outcome would be if its a Romney/Rubio/McDonnel/Ryan ticket. Any of those would benefit Romney. I mentioned this before, but u have to keep in mind,if its McDonnell, Obama can say goodbye to Virginia/N.Carolina and the entire rust belt!!
The trouble with national polling, currently, is the randomness of the sample on a national basis.
The election is REALLY 51 SEPARATE elections. So, reliably Blue AND reliably Red states are unimportant. The only ones that count are the Battleground states in close elections.
In order for a random national poll to be statistically significant, a statistically significant random number of voters need to be polled in EACH state. This gives a statistically more accurate gauge of the national mood. 1000 RANDOM voters nationwide just does NOT cut it.
A BETTER method, in a close election, is to assign the RELIABLE states to each party and count up the electoral votes. Then, you sample a statistically significant number of random voters in EACH of the Battleground states.
Once the polling numbers are known, each of the Battleground states can be assigned to the preferred party. Only then, when you look at the electoral count, can the national sentiment be gauged.
And people need to remember that polls are ONLY a snapshot in time.
In 1980, Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 9-12 points [nationally] once the nominees were decided. By the last debate [the week before the election], Carter STILL led Reagan by 2-4 points. A few days later, AFTER the last debate, Carter was BEHIND by 2-4 points - but STILL within striking distance.
HOWEVER, by Monday [the day BEFORE the election], Carter was BEHIND by 10 points and was told that HE COULD NOT WIN ...
Carter LOST the 1980 election 489-49 electoral votes and ONLY carried 6 states [GA, HI, MD, MN, RI, and WV] plus DC. AND he ONLY carried these COLLECTIVELY by 562K votes ...
Food for thought ...
The real problem with this poll, if the info given about it on Fox’s “The Five” this afternoon is correct, is that it was taken of 1000 “adults” - not even “registered voters” much less “likely voters” - the general adult population is not very sophisticated and in that ‘rats tend to be lazy, irresponsible, and stupid, fewer of them actually take the steps and stay informed enough to eventually vote, so that registered voters tend to poll more conservative than the general population, and likely voters more conservative than registered voters - in other words, this was a biased sample if one is looking to see how an election would actually turn out today, and Obama would probably about tie Romney in such a contest...sadly all four conservatives on the Fox program seemed unaware of this and failed to laugh the findings of the poll out of the conversation......