Unemployment rate decrease!!!!

5/4/2012 | Bramps

[bramps]

I'm not great at math but I need someone to splane something. If the weekly unemployment claims far exceed the weekly job creation numbers, and they have for three years and by a considerable amount each week I believe, how come the unemployment rate goes DOWN????? Obama's new math. If he's right, I think the casino's have been screwing us all along. Just a thought.

[Lmo56]

Fuzzy Math ...

THIS is what the MSM SHOULD be reporting - IF they had any integrity ...

Employment status:

1. Civilian noninstitutional population went from 242,604,000 in March to 242,784,000 in April. This is an INCREASE of 180,000.

2. Civilian labor force went from 154,707,000 in March to 154,365,000 in April. This is a DECREASE of -342,000.

3. Participation rate went from 63.8% in March to 63.6% in April. This is a DECREASE of -0.2%.

4. Employed went from 142,034,000 in March to 141,865,000 in April. This is a DECREASE of -169,000.

5. Employment-population ratio went from 58.5% in March to 58.4% in April. This is a DECREASE of -0.1%.

6. Unemployed went from 12,673,000 in March to 12,500,000 in April. This is a DECREASE of -173,000.

7. Unemployment rate went from 8.2% in March to 8.1% in April. This is a DECREASE of -0.1%.

8. Not in labor force went from 87,897,000 in March to 88,419 ,000 in April. This is an INCREASE of 522,000.

*****

Persons not in the labor force (not seasonally adjusted)

1. Marginally attached to the labor force went from 2,352,000 in March to 2,363,000 in April. This is an INCREASE of 11,000.

2. Discouraged workers went from 865,000 in March to 968,000 in April. This is an INCREASE of 103,000.

[goseminoles]

The numbers are based on numbers from your local workforce board databases and UC claimant numbers. And they are seasonally adjusted numbers.

[kathsua]

Obama has gotten the unemployment rate “down” because he has gotten people so discouraged that they don’t look for work any more.

[Cyber Liberty]

[autumnraine]

No, the numbers are based on the Census Bureau statistics/interviews, BUT, if you work one hour in the week of the 11th you are counted as employed.

[bramps]

Thanks for your reply. Read post #2 then explain how unemployment goes down. That was my question.

[bramps]

Awesome. I wonder if Obama would know what you mean???

[bramps]

Awesome. I wonder if Obama would know what you mean???

[Lmo56]

A good barometer is the stock market [which looked at ALL of the numbers in the report].

Market was down 1.27% [approximately 170 points] today ...

So much for “Hopey - Changey” ...

[calex59]

Anyone but a total idiot knows these numbers have been rigged in order to make Bozo look good. By election time they will have the unemployment at 7.6 %, not in reality but according to their rigged figures. We all know the real rate is somewhere above 12 %.

[Sarah Barracuda]

With Obama’s logic, if everyone stopped looking for work the unemployment rate would be 0 percent..just watch, in November the unemployment rate will be 0 percent because EVERYONE will stop looking for work and the media will praise Obama some more

[Lmo56]

Anyone but a total idiot knows these numbers have been rigged in order to make Bozo look good.

NBC Local in DC just aired a report on the economy from Steve Handelsman - he usually gets air time on NBC Nightly News.

He reported the jobs report fairly and accurately - citing the down tick was due to people dropping out of the job market.

Wonder if Brian Williams will have the ballz to air his report tonight ...

[nascarnation]

Terms that haven’t been heard on the MSM since Jan 09:

McJobs

Homeless problem

Recovery for Wall $treet but not Main Street

[JPG]

Simple. E=MC2 except on alternate Friday’s.

[goseminoles]

Likely I said, the numbers count job seekers. If you reduce the count of jobs seekers at your local workforce boards, you reduce unemployment. This is the field in which I work.

[drypowder]

Excuse me for preaching to the quire but it has to do with the government’s propaganda machine to make it appear the obozo is good for the country. Reality, there are so many employable people who have given up looking for work and can no longer collect unemployment that they are no longer being counted by the government as the unemployed. The same is true for the government’s rosy stats on the cost of living indicators. It too is propaganda because the government no longer includes the cost to families for food and gasoline. Obviously it’s all about getting the obozo reelected and he too is a fraud on the people.

[dynachrome]

From another post on FR:

“the reason unemployment is slightly down this month is the same reason unemployment has been declining ever so slightly for a while: every month hundreds of thousands of people give up looking for work. Yeah, unemployment is getting better, if you don’t count all those unemployed people the government doesn’t count any more... “

[Lmo56]

Yeah, unemployment is getting better, if you don’t count all those unemployed people the government doesn’t count any more... “

CBS Evening News just reported the reason for the down tick in unemployment accurately [people not looking for work] ...

BUT, on ABC World News, Diane puckered up to plant a big, fat, wet one on Obama's ass - NOT mentioning it hardly at all ...

[goseminoles]

And as autumnraine posted, there are interviews conducted.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where

[Daffynition]

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – April 2012

[drypowder]

re post 17, oops, it’s choir, thanks DC

[goseminoles]

” No,the numbers are based on the Census Bureau statistics/interviews,BUT,if you work one hour in the week of the 11th you are counted as employ”

While I agree, there has to be a mechanism to derive unemployment numbers by county. An interview isn’t afforded that opportunity. Your state has databases much like employflorida.com.

[clamper1797]

The U3 number is TOTAL BS and needs not to be used by EITHER side. Use the REAL unemployment numbe ... the one that still counts the people who have run out of benefits.

[goseminoles]

Im not sure how we statistically do that. Many have unreported income. If I lost my job today, I would mow lawns if I had to and not report a cent.

[nc28205]

>>>If the weekly unemployment claims far exceed the weekly job creation numbers, and they have for three years and by a considerable amount each week I believe, how come the unemployment rate goes DOWN?????

Let me help. First of all there is no such thing as a weekly job creations number. Each Thursday morning the Labor Department reports the number of new claims for unemployment. No comparison is made to job creation.

Generally, a number somewhere between 375K and 400K represents a neutral level. When claims are consistently above 400K in a monmth, you generally see the numbers from the monthly survey of bsinesses report a net deline in payrolls and the numbers from the household survey reportan increase in umenployment. In general, you get the opposite effects on net payrolls and unemployemnt when new claims are under 375K.

The weekly new claims have ticked higher in recent weeks, and this has been reflected in the lower payroll numbers for March and April than were reported in January and February.

Similarly, as many have noted here. Unemployment went down not because hiring increased that much, but because the number of those seeking employment declined. So, no funky math involved, just a need to better explain what goes into the calculation.

[Signalman]

Cooking the books.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Because you don't count people among the "unemployed" who have been unemployed for so long that they have run out of unemployment benefits and have stopped looking for a job.

That way you can say unemployment has gone down, when all that has happened is that people have disappeared into despair.

While the Ubamas go on three vacations a month.

[Positive]

You are right...AND throw a bunch of hard to define numbers into a pot and this leads to hard to understand formulaic results...I.E. fuzzier math.

Here are some some clear terms and hypothetical formulae which illustrate the conundrum in easy to understand numbers.

If there were 100 million in the “Work Force” and 91.8 Million were “Employed”, 8.2 Million would be left “Unemployed” (Workforce minus Employed leaves Unemployed). This would equal an “Unemployment Rate” of (8.2/100) or 8.2%.

So, it would seem that if 200 thousand “Lost their Jobs” that would mean 91.6 Million were “Employed” and this would leave 8.4 million “Unemployed”. This would equal an “Unemployment Rate” of (8.4/100) or 8.4%.

But…

If you somehow determined that 330 thousand unemployed had “left the work force" (quit applying for jobs) that would mean the “Work Force” is now 99.670 million… since there are now 91.6 Million “Employed,” this means there are “Only” 8.07 Million Unemployed (99.67 – 91.6 = 8.07) and the “Unemployment Rate” is “Only” 8.1%.

Presto Chango, this is one way the “Unemployment Rate” can Decline while the number of Americans who have no jobs increases.

Sadly... Figures Lie and liars figure.

Notice how the 0bama libs are fixated on “Rates” lately… Romney pays $3 million in taxes which is far more than most of us pay… but it’s unfair because his “tax” rate is lower than that of some of us.

While the number of Americans without jobs is rising… the “Unemployment Rate” falls… Absurd!

Just watch, if things remain dicey for 0Bama, in October the “Work Force” number could somehow decline until it matches the “Employed” so if the “Employed” is equal to the “Workforce” the “Unemployment RATE) will be Zero… as in ZeroBama!!!

Unfortunately that does not mean that every able bodied worker in the U. S. A. will have a job… millions MORE will just be MISSING FROM THE FORMULA!!!.

[Positive]

I meant to alert you to my rely to your post.

[Ouderkirk]

There’s no fuzzy math or anything else. It is a complete fabrication.

The U-3 number will be under 7.6% by election day. While the U-6 number will remain constant at about 15% or increast to about 18%.

The White Hut wants U-3 to go down, so they say it went down then cook the books to make appear that way.

If they could make it 4%, they would, it’s just than nobody would believe them, not that anybody believes them now.

[RedMDer]

Why Donate? We are Beholden to no one!

Why Donate? We are Beholden to no one!

[autumnraine]

You aren’t getting me... the ‘unemployment number’ is derived by interviews.

[autumnraine]

http://www.census.gov/cps/

This is how the ‘unemployment’ figure is derived.

[autumnraine]

You need to google ‘sampling’ for unemployment figures.

[Eye of Unk]

Nobody is looking for work.

They are out scrounging and stealing radiators from school buses, copper plumbing, welding cables from bushiness.

I know as someone walked into our gated property recently after hours and ripped us off of over 150’ of heavy duty welding cables, which will cost over $1200 to replace.

My hours are cut back, my paycheck is half of what it used to be.

Tomorrow I am heading out to do some metal detecting, hopefully I’ll find some gold trace.