[icwhatudo]

My 2cents prediction map 287 Romney-251 Obama

Predicting 50-50 Senate and 245(R)-193(D) House

[TornadoAlley3]

[Art in Idaho]

The more I think about November 6, the more I think the final electoral college map will look like the Bush/Cheney win of 2004: 2004 Electoral College Map, Real Clear Politics. My only changes would be Wisconsin Romney, New Mexico Obama. Still a win for Romney. Now if New Hampshire goes for Romney, it could be a wipeout.

[ReaganÜberAlles]

Romney >380
Obummer <140

[Stonewall Jackson]

Here's my prediction for election night.

[youngidiot]

Romney wins. We keep the House. The Senate will be tied, with Ryan casting the deciding vote.

[Revolting cat!]

[Signalman]

R&R: 320EVs. Don’t ask me why but for the past month that number has been in my mind.

[campaignPete R-CT]

CONNECTICUT
I predict that the team of VOLS I work with ... we will be out campaigning from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. on behalf of conservatives in tight races for the state House. And helping Linda McMahon for Senate.

That is all I predict now. Perhaps we get somebody new in the state House who would not have won without us. But only by the grace of God.

I am also predict that regardless of the outcome, the God-fearing people will regroup and come back for another round in ‘14.

[paglia444]

The Presidential race will be super, super tight, like 2000 & 2004. I think Romney will win by 1-2%.

Basically, you have to look at the swings from election to election; those prediction a Romney landslide are not being realistic. Yes, in 1980, Reagan won by 9%, but Carter had won in 1976 by only 2%. So that was an 11% swing in one election.

Reagan won 1984 by 18.2%, so that was an R+9 swing.

In 1988, Bush won by around 7%, so that was an 11 point swing toward the Dems.

In 1992, Clinton won by 5.5%, so that was a 12.5% swing to the Dems.

In 1996, Clinton won by 8.5%, so that was another 3 point D swing.

In 2000, Bush lost popular vote by 0.5%, so that was an 8 point swing to the R.

In 2004, Bush picked up 3 points, for a 2.5% win.

Obama won 2008 by 7, so that was a 9.5% swing.

As you can see, the swings have gotten shallower. Bush’s 2000 win, swinging 8% toward the Republicans is probably the most realistic for us. That would translate to a 1% Romney win.