I did not intend to imply that you were finding fault with Intrade.
Others were and my defense of Intrade was directed at them.
I apologize for the confusion.
As I expect you know, Intrade does not set the odds. They simply operate the market and the odds result from the traders’ actions.
If people think that the price of Romney predictions underestimates the likelihood that he will prevail, then all this means is that they disagree with most of the traders.
That is what speculators call “opportunity”.
Oh, OK. Then we agree. Sorry about that then.
Just to note too about the main topic of the thread: Romney’s overall odds on Intrade seem to be fairly closely tied to his odds of winning Ohio on the site. I think that’s where the snag is. Since Intrade is currently giving FL and (by a very small margin) VA to Romney, I would think his overall odds would go up if polls start consistently showing him winning in Ohio, since if he wins those three states he’ll pretty much have the whole election in the bag. While without Ohio it will be a hard road for him, and the Intraders know that.