NOLA did not experience a 30' storm surge. The max surge was 27' on the MS coast. Max surge in and around NOLA was 12-16'. Surge was 12' at Lakefront.
But...its apples and oranges. You can't compare surges from one place to another as if they are all the same. A 14' surge over Miami would do MASSIVE amounts more damage than say a 30' surge along the MS/AL coasts...or in Chambers County TX.
A 12' surge at Kings Pt and 11' at Battery Park will cause a LOT of damage...much more than 12' in MS.
N.O. is below Lakefront. Any storm water within the metro area has to be pumped out. Once the surge breached the leaves, it was up to the roof tops and higher in lower areas.
“A 12’ surge at Kings Pt and 11’ at Battery Park will cause a LOT of damage...much more than 12’ in MS.”
Look at the surge maps more carefully. The probability is very low for >10’ surge anywhere. That number is the worst-case scenario, not the most likely scenario. It is much more likely that the actual surge in most spots affected by surge will be in the 1’ to 3’ range, which is a hassle for physical damage to homes and businesses, but not what one would consider life threatening.
I have a friend in Port Washington right on the bay who will most likely get water in his first floor, which totally sucks. But when Irene went through last year, the prediction then was for 8’ surge and yet he got 0 feet of flooding. The water didn’t even get onto his lawn. So the models can be totally wrong if you are looking at the worst case only, like you are.
More lives will likely be lost in the days after the storm further to the north due to flash flooding.