Make that the early VOTES.
So, I take two things, at least, out of your analysis. Pardon me, as I am sure these are the two points you have been trying to make. It’s just that it is now starting to click in my slow brain. If all these polls showing the high Dem sample AND the extraordinarily high lead for Obama among people who have already voted but leaving Romney with a huge election day lead and couple that with the fact that the percentage size of those already voted in the poll, with what we actually KNOW about the total number and D/R split of the absentee and early vote (it is well off the 2008 pace overall and for Dems). Then two things seem to be matter of fact conclusions: [1] The too high Dem sample is by default wrong, AND [2] The poll itself is saying that the votes are definitely NOT there for Obama among election day voters percentage wise or numerically.