I don’t think I have ever seen an election go so far against the anecdotal evidence.
I just cannot believe Florida was that close. I attribute it to the big DEMOGRAPHIC WAVE long predicted being here, combined with a complete lack of rational voter ID.
You had a guy in North Carolina openly brag on Facebook about voting FIVE OR SIX times.
Look at the margins in some of these states...
I don’t know...even the UN observers were shocked at how stupid our elections are run...and they are leftists.....
“I dont think I have ever seen an election go so far against the anecdotal evidence.”
That is exactly the problem right there. Lots of people here fell into the same trap dems fell into in 2004. They believed in a mythical momentum because they refused to look outside their normal sources and were positive Kerry would win.
If you look at my post history, I used the lessons of 2010 where Gallup and Rasmussen screwed with the party ID numbers and were consequently waaay off on the final.
The point is, don’t put faith in anecdotes. Put faith in social science, statistics and data. Nate Silver was dead on on every single thing he projected and it was disbelief or denial to ignore that data when all he was doing was crunching numbers, not rallying a liberal cause.
I tried to call out Drudge as a Baghdad Bob, Michael Barone as a snakoil salesman and Gallup and Rasmussen as arrogant pollsters who had no business screwing with party ID numbers that are and always have been FLUID, NOT static.
The polls and Nate Silver identified that the white vote would be 72% of the electorate this year, 2 less than 2008 and 4 less than 2004. Gallup predicted 78%...they bent the data!
All the while the black vote remained 13% and the hispanic share of the electorate has increased 2 to 3 points each election cycle. All the mainstream polls stated this and no one here would believe it no matter how loud we yelled. The whole demographics are not in our favor is not anecdotal, it is real and we have devastating evidence of it tonight. We have GOT to find a way to deal with this fact as a party or forget about a party altogether and start anew.
That right there was the problem. Anecdotal evidence. Many FReepers believed it would be a landslide against Obama based on what they could see and hear and feel. However, the main problem with that approach is that it is a closed loop. It's the same thing I said in 2008 - where, again, people were saying how they know no one who is voting for Obama.
Well, your system is a closed loop. Chances are your friends will have the same political alignment that you have (people tend to be your friends because if shared beliefs), your family will tend to believe the same, and even at your workplace most people you interact with will have similar views. A closed loop system that reinforces whatever it is one believes. If you like the Raiders chances are those you associate with will also prefer the Raiders. If you hate Subarus ....if you like going rafting on weekends ....if you thoroughly enjoy plinking at targets ....etc.
By basing anecdotal evidence as a veritable source of analyzing the general feel of the electorate a lot of people gave themselves the wrong perception.
I said this in 2008, but this election cycle I didn't say a word. Why? Because it would have made people who joined years after I did claim that I was a troll. I saw it happen to some people (although many totally deserved the admonishment). The US electorate is divided into three camps - 47% are Dem and will not vote any other way. 47% are Republican (oh, and there is a HUGE difference between a Republican and a Conservative) and will not vote any other way. It is the third group, the undecideds, who shift things. Now - how could someone be undecided at a time like this when the country is in peril? Because they are drowned in apathy and simply couldn't care. Which is why Benghazi would have meant nothing ....dead Americans, who are soldiers, don't register to them much (it would have to be a domestic terrorist attack to make them react beyond simply saying 'tsk tsk how sad' and go back to eating their morning bagel).
Anyways - we here at FR are in a closed loop system (so are the silly people at DU). What we think and believe is not aligned with the greater public, and for that matter our views as Conservatives is not aligned with that of the GOP (who are Republicans, and a 1960s Democrat is actually far more conservative than a modern Republican).
I attribute it to the Billion dollars Acorn Got from the Stimulus Package to run a 4 Year reelection Campaign. Thats right we Financed this debacle