Unless I am mistaken, it takes an affirmative vote of four Justices to hear a case, and that does not mean they will vote in favor of anything.
I don’t believe that there are four Justices who wish to see this matter heard, but if there are, I believe it is because one of them wants to shoot this argument in the head.
They will do it on procedural grounds so that the merits are never reached, since it will then leave the door open for future interpretation.
This is nothing to get excited about. The only thing interesting is that Kennedy at first through it out, and then on second go round, it was accepted for conference. I think we know how Kennedy will vote on the case if it ever is heard before the court.
This is not a petition for certiorari, it is a motion for a stay (specifically, to stay the counting of the electoral votes by Congress until Orly files a cert. petition). Any motion for a stay goes to one Justice, who can grant it, deny it, or refer it to the full Court for a conference. If the first Justice denies it, the movant can make the same motion again to another Justice (and theoretically can make it over and over to all 9 Justices). So, in practice, if a motion is denied by one Justice and the movant makes it again to a second Justice, that Justice will always refer it to the full Court so it can be denied once and for all.
Here, Orly made her motion to Kennedy, who denied it. She made it again to Roberts, who referred it to a conference. The facts that (1) Congress has already counted the electoral votes (the thing Orly is asking to enjoin) and (2) the conference is scheduled for after the inauguration are pretty good indicators of what the result will be.