Posted on 07/07/2013 9:36:14 AM PDT by ckilmer
It could happen, but it seems a little unrealistic.
........
This is definitely a work in progress.
The metric to judge them by is growth in sales. both for tesla and competing cars. Look up the thread at the third post where you see those numbers.
>>Ooo, you’re a brave one. LOL
I drive a 3000 pound car on that commute and that takes nerves of steel some days.
QUESTION:
If 33% ( 80 Million plus ) of the registered passenger vehicles ( 243,023,485 ) had to be RECHARGED 1 to 2 times per day HOW MUCH ELECTRICITY would be needed and WHERE would it come from?
...............
good questions.
One of the reasons we drove SUVs is because we could look out over the traffic and see if problems were brewing ahead. It did help.
One day we were driving along and there was an accident ahead. A vehicle ahead was hit and launched up in the air about 15 feet on a level stretch of freeway. I hadn’t ever seen anything like it.
for the next three years anyhow, its pretty much baked into the regulatory process that the growth in electrical power will come mostly from solar and wind. a lot of coal plants will be transferred over to natural gas.
I think this is a rather stupid way to go.
To get the big numbers required for additional cars they’d need more portable nuclear power plants and to drop the prices of these plants they’d need to shift them over to thorium from uranium and to lftr designs from light water reactor designs.
>>One of the reasons we drove SUVs is because we could look out over the traffic and see if problems were brewing ahead. It did help.
I prefer maneuverability, so I installed a forward-looking camera in my right-side mirror with a small monitor on the dash so I can see down the side. SUVs and semis can’t block my view anymore.
“Drivers who opt for the swap will have to eventually return to the station to get their original battery back, and they’ll have to pay for the service once again.”
Well that certainly sounds convenient.
Sure the “clean energy” drum has been beaten to death, and sure there is a lot of Govt. BS and marketing hype in all of this. But with all that being said - I for one have to marvel at the technology. Maybe it’s a bit like 3D printing. We’re at the very early stages but it sure seems like the potential to do some really cool stuff is there.
You could be right.
I didn't say that the swap-out battery was sufficient to making their business model viable in the long-term, only necessary.
sitetest
Charging batteries for those cars is not “free.” It’s rather expensive.
I’ve seen hybrids stalled next to two-lane highways at high elevations on the Rockies. Haven’t seen any of them driving far from any town in the winter. The batteries won’t take much of a charge in extreme cold, unless some expensive shelter, heating and ventilation are built for them (temps lower than -30, F).
An off-grid PV solar plant for charging an electric car at an off-grid home would be large and expensive indeed. Maybe a few coal-fired boilers, custom steam engines and large alternators could be built to do the job—similar to the answer of charging electric cars from grid power. ;-)
Interesting energy problems with extreme cold at high altitudes. Also found out that large generators won’t run long enough on propane in the winter without extraordinarily large propane tanks. Might fiddle with putting a heat collector on a tank for one of those someday (like a heat sink, only working in reverse), but it’s not a priority.
I see your point. However, I'd think that with the right combination of warranties, folks might be persuaded to adopt the model. Something like, “As long as you get your battery swapped at a Tesla Authorized Service Center, we will provide you with working batteries that will meet XXX-levels of performance, without incurring the cost of a new battery, until you've driven your Tesla motorcar for 100,000.”
Or whatever.
If Tesla can't persuade folks to adopt the swap model, and can do no better than an incomplete charge in 20 minutes, then I think the company's chances for long-term success, sans government subsidies (or possibly even WITH government subsidies), are much weaker.
sitetest
CURRENTLY:
"Electricity consumption by 107 million U.S. households in 2001 totaled 1,140 billion kWh. The most significant end uses were central air-conditioning and refrigerators, each of which accounted for about 14 percent of the U.S. total." But that's only houses. Wikipedia tells us the US uses 4,104,900,000,000 kWh per year. We can divide by 365 to get kWh per day and by 1000 to get megaWatt-hours per day. That is 11,246,301 mWh per day. That's a lot!
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070503142008AAYDVBe
Still the QUESTION:
If ( 4,104,900,000,000 kWh per year. ) is the annual U.S consumption.... WHAT is the percent of electricity increase to the grid needed to meet increased electric needs of charging 80 million additional vehicles 1 to 2 times per day?
I just found this which sheds MORE light on the subject of USAGE and effect.
How Much CO2 Do Electric Cars Produce?
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Electric%20Cars%20and%20CO2.html
"We are also at the point in our lives where we have almost no bills."
We're actually living through the most expensive part of our lives. First son is in college, second son is going into his senior year in high school, which is a private Catholic school. So, starting in 2014 - 2015, we'll have two in college. First son gets lots of financial aid (his school is very generous), hope the second one does, too. But even so, tuition is a [large] house payment. Therefore, everything’s gotta last a little longer, or at least until first son graduates in 2016, LOL.
Then, it's all a downhill ride.
Maybe I'll win the lottery between now and then. Of course, it'd help if I were to buy lottery tickets.
sitetest
the cold problem with batteries is definitely a limiting factor with batteries for the next 5-10 years—or until they figure out a solution.
might be why the production plants are in palo alto and not michigan. (but I doubt it.)
WHAT is the percent of electricity increase to the grid needed to meet increased electric needs of charging 80 million additional vehicles 1 to 2 times per day?
.........
beats me. but given that batteries don’t work so well in cold climates— you can bet that volume increases will most affect the grid in places like California Arizona Nevada and other southern states.
The desert states will likely solve the needed extra electricity problem by putting up more solar panels. That’s what they’re doing now anyhow—and will be doing for the next three years.
(imho the best solution to the needed added extra energy is lftr portable nuclear power plants.)
I haven’t done the math but my wag would be that for electric cars to become one third of the auto inventory in the USA — electric cars would have to maintain current high growth rates of 20+% annually for 10-20 years.
A lot is going to happen in the energy space and everywhere else between now and then.
————>”I like the looks of it too.”
It’s got a kind of Aston Martin thing going there. About the only thing I’m not wild about are the silly retractable door handles.
“Battery Not Included”.
yeah that is pretty funny.
yeah I don’t think they have all the chinks out of the battery yet.
the real test won’t come for another 4 years when Tesla promises to have an electric car out in the 30 k range.
to do that, they’ll have to have killed most of the battery bugs.
Great.
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