[jjsheridan5]

Michael Barone and Charlie Cook both say that there are only ten seats up for grabs.

In the aftermath of the '95 shutdown, which conventional wisdom predicted would result in disaster for the Republicans, the Republicans only lost a handful of seats (under 10, if memory serves) and picked up a couple in the Senate. This was despite the fact that we had picked up dozens of seats in '94, many in deep blue districts.

The effect of the shutdown will only be visible with a microscope, and could go either way. The effect of the behavior of the Establishment Republicans, however, may be significant, in particular to certain incumbent Senators.

[Mikey_1962]

I believe only 4 seats went to the Dems.

This is because voters no longer pick their Representatives.

Representatives pick their voters.