Here’s what I know.
I ran a Daytrading office back in the day and used virtually ever “tool” available to find trades. They worked until they stopped working. Some of them worked for weeks or months at a time, then nothing.
It comes down to “Risk management” and the consistent application of those rules. It’s the only way you can measure their usefulness over time. Most people can find something that seems to be working and they will increase their risk, since it seems to be working, and they will blow up their account.
If you consider probably the most famous group of traders, “The Turtles”, the guy that developed this trading system stated in a WSJ interview that “I could publish the rules for this trading system and well over 80% of people wouldn’t follow them”. Even if they knew that following the rules would make them money.
You need to develop a set of rules.
if this, and that, then, push the button.
Test it in real time. Backtesting doesn’t work.
Be consistent in your application so you can measure it’s effectiveness.
If you find something that always works.
Don’t tell ANYBODY. They will find it soon enough, so you need to maximize your profits while you can.
Best of luck.
Fibonacci is more of a confirmation indicator for me. It works similar to other well known indicators in that if enough people believe it works then it will. Lots of people throw up fibs waiting for a retrace and buy back at that point so if enough people believe it works. Other theory would be fibonaccis pretty much explain the universe so it has to work!