To: Yosemitest
Ooops, I was meaning to say above: NASA was forthcoming with data on the asteroid that recently missed the earth by half the distance of this comet's closest approach.
To be more precise, that asteroid was about 300' in diameter and missed earth by 3M miles on the 17th Feb., IIRC. This comet will pass about 5M miles and is a whole lot larger I believe.
55 posted on
02/28/2014 9:24:32 PM PST by
Errant
(Surround yourself with intelligent and industrious people who help and support each other.)
To: Errant
Based on
the "Figure 4" chart on page 6 of the .pdf from Quanzhi Ye⋆ and Paul A. Wiegert,
and a great amount of reading of "how to interpret the data", (
I could be WRONG)
IF I read that figure 4 chart correctly,then the "mean" particle size is between 7 inches to 8 inches in size,
and the "mode" particle size is between 10.5 inches and 11.5 inches in size.
Here's how I took an "educated GUESS" at it. From the .pdf " ...From these data we conclude that the Afρ of 209P/LINEAR stays at 1 cm ( 0.3937007874 inch) level throughout its perihelion passage.
Assuming a meteoroid density of ρ = 300 kg·m−3 and a particle radius r measured in meters, the ratio of solar radiation pressure to gravity β is given by β = 5.74 × 10−4/ρr in these units following Fox et al. (1982); Williams & Fox (1983). This yields a particle size of ∼ 0.6 mm ( 0.2362 inch ), which indicates a predominance of large particles.
In the absence of other details, we assume a Bond albedo for the nucleus of 0.05, which yields a nucleus size of 600 m ( 1,968.48 feet); we also assume a nucleus density of 300 kg · m−3.
We first integrate the orbit of 209P/LINEAR backwards 250 years. The comet is then integrated forward again, with particles released at each perihelion passage.
Though the number of particles arriving at Earth is relatively small, the size distribution is skewed strongly towards larger particles (Figure 4). Despite the relative rarity of large particles in the simulation (due to a size distribution which favors smaller ones), meteoroids arriving at Earth are predominately larger than 1 mm ( 0.3937007874 inch). Given that our syndyne calculations indicate that the parent produces particles most abundantly at the size which are most efficiently delivered to Earth in our simulations, it may be that the shower will prove unusual for the number of bright meteors produced.
SUMMARY
We reanalyzed the optical observations made during the 2009 apparition of 209P/LINEAR to constraint the dust production activity of the comet,in the hope to verify and refine the prediction of the forthcoming meteor outburst in 2014 as caused by this comet.
Our analysis showed that 209P/LINEAR is considerably depleted in dust production, with Afρ ≈ 1 cm ( 0.3937007874 inch) within eight months around its perihelion,which indicated the comet may be currently transitioning from typical comet to a dormant comet.
By fitting the observation to syndyne model, we found that the tail is dominated by larger particles.
Our numerical simulation confirmed the arrival of particles from some of the 17981979 cometary trails from 209P/LINEAR on 2014 May 24.
The peak of the meteor activity is expected at 2014 May 24, 6h29m UT, with FWHM about 0.4 days.
However, our simulation showed that the size selection is skewed strongly to larger particles; considering that the syndyne simulation indicated that the tail of 209P/LINEAR is dominated by larger particles,we suggested that the meteor outburst, if detectable, may be dominated by bright meteors.
My "educated GUESS" at converting the "Figure 4" chart Logarithm numbers:
log10 (radius(-1.0)) = 0.1 IF nucleus size radius is 984.24 feet (1,968.48 feet divided by 2)98.424 feet particle size
log10 (radius(-1.5)) = 0.05
log10 (radius(-2.0)) = 0.01
log10 (radius(-2.5)) = 0.005
log10 (radius(-3.0)) = 0.001 0.98424 feet or 11.81088 inches
log10 (radius(-3.5)) = 0.0005 0.49212 feet or 5.90544 inches
log10 (radius(-4.0)) = 0.0001 0.098424 feet or 1.181088 inches
log10 (radius(-4.5)) = 0.00005 0.049212 feet or 0.590544 inch
log10 (radius(-5.0)) = 0.00001 0.0098212 or 0.1181088 inch
You really should view
the "Figure 4" chart on page 6 of the .pdf ~ for yourself.
57 posted on
03/01/2014 3:22:33 AM PST by
Yosemitest
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