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Ebola Surveillance Thread
Free Republic Threads ^ | August 10, 2014 | Legion

Posted on 08/10/2014 12:46:23 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe

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To: RinaseaofDs
My opinion concerning the odds of a significant Ebola "event" in the US by the end of July 2015 has been about 10% for the past month, and nothing I've seen yet has changed that.

My definition of a significant Ebola "event" in the U.S. includes major economic and/or financial impact alone, not merely those sick from or killed by the virus. Loss of strategic mineral or agricultural imports (such as gum Arabic) from Africa due to the Ebola epidemic might have a significant economic impact in the U.S.

A national air travel shutdown of more than three days, or a one-week quarantine of an area inhabited by 100,000 Americans, would also constitute a significant Ebola "event".

1,681 posted on 09/05/2014 1:41:01 PM PDT by Thud
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To: RinaseaofDs; Thud; Smokin' Joe; Black Agnes
The Chicago Boyz Weblog had an article back on 8 August 2014 titled “Why Ebola will not stay in Africa” where the commentors went on at length about the implications of a major Ebola break out from Africa.

See This is the link:

http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/44711.html

The issue we are going to see soon — think 4-to-9 months — is a recession of about 2008-2009 magnitude caused from the necessary quarantine measures plus, and maybe especially from, the panic.

When there are between 200K and 1.6 million Ebola cases, mostly in Africa, but spread by air traveling quarantine runners world wide. There will be a complete cratering of the international air passenger transportation system.

And the voluntary effects of trip cancellations by the public and airline union strikes will hit weeks before the official quarantine measures.

Quarantine measures after the panic bites will cause extensive/expensive/slow 100% border inspections of ISO containers to keep out Ebola infected quarantine runners.

I don't want to know what it means to the Silicon Valley economy when they can't get their electronic components overnight or their strategic metals at all.

When “just-in-time” logistics just _stops_.

So will the world economy and much of America's.

1,682 posted on 09/05/2014 2:20:27 PM PDT by Dark Wing
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To: Dark Wing

My wife just told me that a majority of the cacao beans used to produce cocoa, aka chocolate, are grown in Africa.


1,683 posted on 09/05/2014 2:55:29 PM PDT by Thud
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To: Thud

Time to go short on cacao bean futures.


1,684 posted on 09/05/2014 3:30:18 PM PDT by Dark Wing
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To: Dark Wing
Interesting link. Thanks for the post. A couple of items stood out, specifically

FREE SAFETY DATA SHEET INDEX - Ebola virus

and

Lethal experimental infections of rhesus monkeys by aerosolized Ebola virus..

These are both must reads. I did not know about the vitality of the virus in dry blood lasting 23 days.
1,685 posted on 09/05/2014 3:48:14 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: Dark Wing; Smokin' Joe; Black Agnes; Covenantor
This Just In (Literally) - To Be Given Out At Airports (Not a Joke):

They're Looking Out For YOU!

1,686 posted on 09/05/2014 4:03:59 PM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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To: Jim Noble
Sierra Leone to impose 4-day, countrywide anti-Ebola "lockdown"
1,687 posted on 09/05/2014 4:56:16 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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Heavily Haredi Hospital Gets First Ever Possible Ebola Case In Israel
1,688 posted on 09/05/2014 5:04:27 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: Oorang

In Israel since Wednesday. Went to the hospital Friday. Was she sitting by herself in an empty room for all those days?


1,689 posted on 09/05/2014 5:08:11 PM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: RinaseaofDs

And this does not include today's report of cases exceeding 4000.

1,690 posted on 09/05/2014 5:20:38 PM PDT by PJ-Comix (Charlie Crist (D-Green Iguana))
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To: PJ-Comix

Was just about to ping you.

Posted on new thread:

2014-09-05 22:28
Geneva - More than 2,000 people have died in the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the World Health Organisation said on Friday, out of about 4,000 patients thought to have been infected in the three countries worst hit by the disease.

The death toll in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone totalled 2,097 as at 5 Sept, out of 3,944 cases, a WHO document said.

The data did not include patients in Nigeria or Senegal, which have also been affected, nor Democratic Republic of Congo, which has been hit by an unrelated outbreak of the disease.


1,691 posted on 09/05/2014 5:26:01 PM PDT by Covenantor ("Men are ruled...by liars who refuse them news, and by fools who cannot govern." Chesterton)
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To: Covenantor; Dark Wing

According to Dark Wing, 1000 new cases PER DAY starting around Sept. 16. Just 11 days away. The graphs will be going straight up then.


1,692 posted on 09/05/2014 5:44:19 PM PDT by PJ-Comix (Charlie Crist (D-Green Iguana))
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To: PJ-Comix

No, they’ll make the graphs logarithmic and enlarge the scale to a zillion to one.


1,693 posted on 09/05/2014 5:46:11 PM PDT by Thud
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To: Thud

The big increase will happen if there is an uncontrollable outbreak in Lagos...population over 20 million.


1,694 posted on 09/05/2014 5:49:59 PM PDT by PJ-Comix (Charlie Crist (D-Green Iguana))
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A youtube video discussing Biosafety Levels
1,695 posted on 09/05/2014 9:35:14 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: PA Engineer
Youtube video of NEIDL: Biosafety Level 4
1,696 posted on 09/05/2014 9:47:04 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: Smokin' Joe
Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Virus Transmission from Bodily Fluids and Fomites
1,697 posted on 09/05/2014 9:58:55 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: PA Engineer
A final youtube video Biosafety level for now. The important point is that the CDC is recommending level one protection for medical personal, while Ebola has always been classified as a Level 4 pathogen.
1,698 posted on 09/05/2014 10:06:52 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: PA Engineer
Foreigners flee Rivers over Ebola


1,699 posted on 09/05/2014 11:26:07 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: PJ-Comix

Not sure what cumulative cases means here. Does it mean all cases during the outbreak - living or dead?


1,700 posted on 09/05/2014 11:48:16 PM PDT by RinaseaofDs
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