Posted on 08/10/2014 12:46:23 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe
I have spent a little time compiling links to threads about the Ebola outbreak in the interest of having all the links in one thread for future reference.
Please add links to new threads and articles of interest as the situation develops.
Thank You all for you participation.
We got a WHO report yesterday with numbers from the last day of August, 5 days from the last reported numbers they posted.
The open cases are on track to cross the next major 1000 mark (4000) in the 6 to 7 days predicted. Last major 1000 was crossed in 15 days. So, about half the time.
On a log scale, it is tracking perfect exponential growth. Senegal has been added as a country being tracked.
“UN to set up Ebola crisis center, aims to stop spread in 6-9 months”
They’re not in any big rush. They’ll set up the crisis center ‘soon’.
RSN.
Promise!
I predict the Japanese test won’t see the light of day in West AFrica for 6m or more. Whoever is providing the current test capabilities isn’t anxious to lose that rice bowl just yet.
Ditto the Japanese anti-viral compound that’s already been produced in quantities for 20K patients. Fuji just hasn’t greased the right palms for that treatment to get widespread publicity that’s been given to ZMapp.
I predict this. If it does become a worldwide pandemic, Japan will be hit hardly at all. They will have the fast test, no qualms about cutting off travel and quarantining those who enter. And they’ve got 20K patient treatments worth of a compound that just may work. All because the Japanese elites don’t despise the rest of their countrymen and wish them dead.
There probably isn’t anything like an effective field test at this point. That’s why the numbers are so goofy right now.
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/ebola-civilians-barred-from-military-hospitals-lagos-hospitals-reject-patients/188221/
"Scared stiff of the Ebola virus especially in some Lagos hospitals, the military has secretly ordered its health care workers to stop attending to civilians at its hospitals across the country.In most military hospitals in Nigeria, civilians account for less than 80 per cent of the patients that are attended to on a daily basis, meaning that the order will be depriving a sizeable number of Nigerians from accessing medical care from the military hospitals.
A source close to the military told THISDAY that the instruction was handed down in a memo to all Nigerian Air Force hospitals in the country last Friday in memo titled, “Order to Unit Order”.
... A nurse with the Lagos State Government hospital in Alimosho Local Government Area told THISDAY that patients are usually assessed from the gate and asked to turn back, if they are discovered to have a fever.
“The truth is that no one wants to take the risk anymore, even if you are not stopped at the gate, no one will attend to you in here. We had a dramatic case of man who came from Togo last week with a serious fever and he beat our security watch to get inside, we simply asked him to leave,” she said.
In the same vein, medical workers and patients at the Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki (FETHA), an Ebonyi State hospital, yesterday took to their heels when the alarm was raised over a suspected Ebola case.
THISDAY gathered that when the rumour filtered into the hospital that a patient admitted was suspected to be infected with the virus, patients, nurses and even some doctors scampered out of the hospital premises ..."
I couldn’t agree more. Defendable territory. It’s why they embraced nuke power (independence). They got lazy, though.
“UN to set up Ebola crisis center, aims to stop spread in 6-9 months”
They’re not in any big rush. They’ll set up the crisis center ‘soon’.
RSN.
Promise!
_________________________________________
Well Dr. Chan has proof read the roadmap docs. All they need now is for the Japaneses origami artist to come on board and show WHO how to fold paper fruit bats.
;>)
http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/ebola/response-roadmap/en/
>>The open cases are on track to cross the next major 1000
>>mark (4000) in the 6 to 7 days predicted. Last major 1000
>>was crossed in 15 days. So, about half the time.
So...roughly we can expect the following with that sort of logrythmic progression —
Sept 11th 4,000~ Ebola cases.
Sept 14th 5,000~ Ebola cases.
Sept 16th 6,000~ Ebola cases.
Sept 17th 7,000~ Ebola cases.
Sept 19th 10,000~ Ebola cases.
>Bleep<
A case build up at that rate is going faster than the virologist who predicted last week 24,000 cases by Sept 24th and 100,000 cases by 1 Dec 2014.
And the projection above is using WHO’s numbers, not MSF’s projections of 3-to-4 times WHO’s numbers.
If MSF is right, we have 12,000 to 16,000 Ebola cases right now...and maybe as many as 40,000 by Sept 19th?!?
Now is the time to buy long term storage food, ammo and P.P.E.
This is the plotline of the Tom Clancy novel "Rainbow Six".
“All they need now is for the Japaneses origami artist to come on board and show WHO how to fold paper fruit bats.”
Well, I’m sure you can’t have enough ‘team building’ workshops before undertaking the strenuous effort to write a plan to talk about establishing a committee to vote on a plan to control this outbreak.
“A case build up at that rate is going faster than the virologist who predicted last week 24,000 cases by Sept 24th and 100,000 cases by 1 Dec 2014.”
That’s wrong based on the reported data, but may be correct based on what is being observed and estimated by WHO.
Easiest way to look at this is that the new cases double each month. The reported data clearly supports that trend in black and white numbers.
May 1 = 180 cases (actual reported was 243), June 1 = 375 cases, July 1 = 750 cases, Aug 1 = 1500 cases, Sept 1 = 3000, (projection from here) Oct 1 = 6000, Nov 1 = 12,000, Dec 1 = 24,000.
Now, the WHO is saying 100,000 by Dec 1, right? They believe their numbers are off by a factor of 4 with respect to ACTUAL open cases.
4 * 24,000 = 96,000 or so cases.
I realize it doesn’t match the pattern we are seeing in terms of WHO reported cases, but it does in one important way:
May 1 = 375 cases, July 1 = 750 cases and Aug 1 = 1500 cases. We crossed 3000 reported open cases sooner than Sep 1, but not significantly. If we double again Oct 1, then it fits the data WHO is reporting. Essentially, we are doubling cases every 28 to 30 days, give or take a day. Mostly, now, we are taking days - it’s doubling sooner than when the first of the next month arrives.
Where the math gets scary is in 2015.
Using WHO data:
Dec 1 = 24,000 cases (no 4 x fudge factor - confirmed cases).
Jan 1 = 48K
Feb 1 = 96K
Mar 1 = 200K
Apr 1 = 400K
May 1 = 800K
Jun 1 = 1.6M
Jul 1 = 3.2M
Aug 1 = 6.4M
Sep 1 = 12.8M
Next year, by Labor day, 13 million open cases, reported on the way they are now by WHO.
Say WHO is right and they are off by a factor of 2. That means 25M cases open on Sept 1, 2015. Off by 4? 50 million infected by start of school 2015.
This assumes: no vaccine, no serum, and a clearly crappy field test for the disease like we have today.
If the tests get better, this number will increase. Right now the tests are very poor at actually diagnosing Ebola Guinea. That’s why WHO is guestimating they are off by either 2 or 4.
So, let’s go into 2015 - 2016, conservatively, as we are wont to do:
Jan 1, 2016 = 192M cases. By April you are at a billion cases.
Election Day, 2016 = Disease burns itself out because it ran out of people a couple of months ago (98.304 billion cases by Nov 1, 2016 based on monthly doubling)
All of this will be true IF the disease keeps doubling cases each month, which it has been since May 2014.
That should be an easier way for you to track where this is going based on the numbers WHO is publishing. You go up and look at what the Oct 1 number and you pray I’m wrong. When Nov 1 rolls around, do the same thing, and so on.
Once the open cases crosses into the five figures category, this officially gets scary. Call that Nov 1 or so.
The virus could mutate into something like Ebola Reston too. If that happens, then I think you can ascribe that to divine intervention. Reston killed monkeys like there was no monkey tomorrow. The virus was carried airborne through HVAC ducts and killed every monkey in a lab in Reston, VA back in the 80’s or 90’s - can’t remember exactly when.
The virus didn’t effect people. It was confirmed to be a strain of the Ebola virus. You can read about it in the last chapter of Richard Preston’s book ‘The Hot Zone’.
Anyway, now the math is way simpler - just see where we are on the first of each month, divide by 2, and see if it ROUGHLY matches the number for the first of last month. That means we are on trend.
Double the number reported for the current month on the 1st, and that’s where we should be the 1st of next month.
And people said there was no use for Algebra and Calculus!
Was in various parts of Europe and some of Africa this summer.
Ebola is in Europe and especially in Italy according to the people I spoke with. Many illegal Africans come over with their various diseases and infect people. Their governments know this, but they don’t want to ruin tourism.
You are probably right.
Current chances they give Ebola jumping to the US and creating a problem is 18%. That’s essentially 1 chance in 5.
I don’t know if that is based on STATED immigration policies or ACTUAL immigration policies.
STATED polices are in place for PRECISELY THIS REASON - to prevent the spread of diseases like this one.
We aren’t doing that, and haven’t been for at least a year along a 2000 mile stretch of our southern border.
Yes, absolutely.
Nightmare all around.
It surely looks that way, doesn’t it? The collective yawn by those in powerful positions over “those people” in Africa is just breathtakingly callous. They have to know, by now for certain, that this is going to spread world-wide before long. Then they can realize their “dream” of culling the “herd”.
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/09/ebola-death-toll-soars-past-2000/?
“The death toll from the Ebola epidemic in west Africa has climbed above 2,000, the UN’s World Health Organisation said on Friday after a two-day crisis meeting in Geneva.”
Maybe related, maybe not. Interesting links in the thread.
Those numbers are staggering. Dear Lord.
Sounds like something worthy of it’s own thread...
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