>>The open cases are on track to cross the next major 1000
>>mark (4000) in the 6 to 7 days predicted. Last major 1000
>>was crossed in 15 days. So, about half the time.
So...roughly we can expect the following with that sort of logrythmic progression —
Sept 11th 4,000~ Ebola cases.
Sept 14th 5,000~ Ebola cases.
Sept 16th 6,000~ Ebola cases.
Sept 17th 7,000~ Ebola cases.
Sept 19th 10,000~ Ebola cases.
>Bleep<
A case build up at that rate is going faster than the virologist who predicted last week 24,000 cases by Sept 24th and 100,000 cases by 1 Dec 2014.
And the projection above is using WHO’s numbers, not MSF’s projections of 3-to-4 times WHO’s numbers.
If MSF is right, we have 12,000 to 16,000 Ebola cases right now...and maybe as many as 40,000 by Sept 19th?!?
Now is the time to buy long term storage food, ammo and P.P.E.
“A case build up at that rate is going faster than the virologist who predicted last week 24,000 cases by Sept 24th and 100,000 cases by 1 Dec 2014.”
That’s wrong based on the reported data, but may be correct based on what is being observed and estimated by WHO.
Easiest way to look at this is that the new cases double each month. The reported data clearly supports that trend in black and white numbers.
May 1 = 180 cases (actual reported was 243), June 1 = 375 cases, July 1 = 750 cases, Aug 1 = 1500 cases, Sept 1 = 3000, (projection from here) Oct 1 = 6000, Nov 1 = 12,000, Dec 1 = 24,000.
Now, the WHO is saying 100,000 by Dec 1, right? They believe their numbers are off by a factor of 4 with respect to ACTUAL open cases.
4 * 24,000 = 96,000 or so cases.
I realize it doesn’t match the pattern we are seeing in terms of WHO reported cases, but it does in one important way:
May 1 = 375 cases, July 1 = 750 cases and Aug 1 = 1500 cases. We crossed 3000 reported open cases sooner than Sep 1, but not significantly. If we double again Oct 1, then it fits the data WHO is reporting. Essentially, we are doubling cases every 28 to 30 days, give or take a day. Mostly, now, we are taking days - it’s doubling sooner than when the first of the next month arrives.
Where the math gets scary is in 2015.
Using WHO data:
Dec 1 = 24,000 cases (no 4 x fudge factor - confirmed cases).
Jan 1 = 48K
Feb 1 = 96K
Mar 1 = 200K
Apr 1 = 400K
May 1 = 800K
Jun 1 = 1.6M
Jul 1 = 3.2M
Aug 1 = 6.4M
Sep 1 = 12.8M
Next year, by Labor day, 13 million open cases, reported on the way they are now by WHO.
Say WHO is right and they are off by a factor of 2. That means 25M cases open on Sept 1, 2015. Off by 4? 50 million infected by start of school 2015.
This assumes: no vaccine, no serum, and a clearly crappy field test for the disease like we have today.
If the tests get better, this number will increase. Right now the tests are very poor at actually diagnosing Ebola Guinea. That’s why WHO is guestimating they are off by either 2 or 4.
So, let’s go into 2015 - 2016, conservatively, as we are wont to do:
Jan 1, 2016 = 192M cases. By April you are at a billion cases.
Election Day, 2016 = Disease burns itself out because it ran out of people a couple of months ago (98.304 billion cases by Nov 1, 2016 based on monthly doubling)
All of this will be true IF the disease keeps doubling cases each month, which it has been since May 2014.
That should be an easier way for you to track where this is going based on the numbers WHO is publishing. You go up and look at what the Oct 1 number and you pray I’m wrong. When Nov 1 rolls around, do the same thing, and so on.
Once the open cases crosses into the five figures category, this officially gets scary. Call that Nov 1 or so.
The virus could mutate into something like Ebola Reston too. If that happens, then I think you can ascribe that to divine intervention. Reston killed monkeys like there was no monkey tomorrow. The virus was carried airborne through HVAC ducts and killed every monkey in a lab in Reston, VA back in the 80’s or 90’s - can’t remember exactly when.
The virus didn’t effect people. It was confirmed to be a strain of the Ebola virus. You can read about it in the last chapter of Richard Preston’s book ‘The Hot Zone’.
Anyway, now the math is way simpler - just see where we are on the first of each month, divide by 2, and see if it ROUGHLY matches the number for the first of last month. That means we are on trend.
Double the number reported for the current month on the 1st, and that’s where we should be the 1st of next month.
And people said there was no use for Algebra and Calculus!
And N95 masks (as if that'll help). And gloves.