“A case build up at that rate is going faster than the virologist who predicted last week 24,000 cases by Sept 24th and 100,000 cases by 1 Dec 2014.”
That’s wrong based on the reported data, but may be correct based on what is being observed and estimated by WHO.
Easiest way to look at this is that the new cases double each month. The reported data clearly supports that trend in black and white numbers.
May 1 = 180 cases (actual reported was 243), June 1 = 375 cases, July 1 = 750 cases, Aug 1 = 1500 cases, Sept 1 = 3000, (projection from here) Oct 1 = 6000, Nov 1 = 12,000, Dec 1 = 24,000.
Now, the WHO is saying 100,000 by Dec 1, right? They believe their numbers are off by a factor of 4 with respect to ACTUAL open cases.
4 * 24,000 = 96,000 or so cases.
I realize it doesn’t match the pattern we are seeing in terms of WHO reported cases, but it does in one important way:
May 1 = 375 cases, July 1 = 750 cases and Aug 1 = 1500 cases. We crossed 3000 reported open cases sooner than Sep 1, but not significantly. If we double again Oct 1, then it fits the data WHO is reporting. Essentially, we are doubling cases every 28 to 30 days, give or take a day. Mostly, now, we are taking days - it’s doubling sooner than when the first of the next month arrives.
Where the math gets scary is in 2015.
Using WHO data:
Dec 1 = 24,000 cases (no 4 x fudge factor - confirmed cases).
Jan 1 = 48K
Feb 1 = 96K
Mar 1 = 200K
Apr 1 = 400K
May 1 = 800K
Jun 1 = 1.6M
Jul 1 = 3.2M
Aug 1 = 6.4M
Sep 1 = 12.8M
Next year, by Labor day, 13 million open cases, reported on the way they are now by WHO.
Say WHO is right and they are off by a factor of 2. That means 25M cases open on Sept 1, 2015. Off by 4? 50 million infected by start of school 2015.
This assumes: no vaccine, no serum, and a clearly crappy field test for the disease like we have today.
If the tests get better, this number will increase. Right now the tests are very poor at actually diagnosing Ebola Guinea. That’s why WHO is guestimating they are off by either 2 or 4.
So, let’s go into 2015 - 2016, conservatively, as we are wont to do:
Jan 1, 2016 = 192M cases. By April you are at a billion cases.
Election Day, 2016 = Disease burns itself out because it ran out of people a couple of months ago (98.304 billion cases by Nov 1, 2016 based on monthly doubling)
All of this will be true IF the disease keeps doubling cases each month, which it has been since May 2014.
That should be an easier way for you to track where this is going based on the numbers WHO is publishing. You go up and look at what the Oct 1 number and you pray I’m wrong. When Nov 1 rolls around, do the same thing, and so on.
Once the open cases crosses into the five figures category, this officially gets scary. Call that Nov 1 or so.
The virus could mutate into something like Ebola Reston too. If that happens, then I think you can ascribe that to divine intervention. Reston killed monkeys like there was no monkey tomorrow. The virus was carried airborne through HVAC ducts and killed every monkey in a lab in Reston, VA back in the 80’s or 90’s - can’t remember exactly when.
The virus didn’t effect people. It was confirmed to be a strain of the Ebola virus. You can read about it in the last chapter of Richard Preston’s book ‘The Hot Zone’.
Anyway, now the math is way simpler - just see where we are on the first of each month, divide by 2, and see if it ROUGHLY matches the number for the first of last month. That means we are on trend.
Double the number reported for the current month on the 1st, and that’s where we should be the 1st of next month.
And people said there was no use for Algebra and Calculus!
Was in various parts of Europe and some of Africa this summer.
Ebola is in Europe and especially in Italy according to the people I spoke with. Many illegal Africans come over with their various diseases and infect people. Their governments know this, but they don’t want to ruin tourism.
Those numbers are staggering. Dear Lord.
See This is the link:
http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/44711.html
The issue we are going to see soon — think 4-to-9 months — is a recession of about 2008-2009 magnitude caused from the necessary quarantine measures plus, and maybe especially from, the panic.
When there are between 200K and 1.6 million Ebola cases, mostly in Africa, but spread by air traveling quarantine runners world wide. There will be a complete cratering of the international air passenger transportation system.
And the voluntary effects of trip cancellations by the public and airline union strikes will hit weeks before the official quarantine measures.
Quarantine measures after the panic bites will cause extensive/expensive/slow 100% border inspections of ISO containers to keep out Ebola infected quarantine runners.
I don't want to know what it means to the Silicon Valley economy when they can't get their electronic components overnight or their strategic metals at all.
When “just-in-time” logistics just _stops_.
So will the world economy and much of America's.