Ebola Surveillance Thread

Free Republic Threads ^ | August 10, 2014 | Legion

[Smokin' Joe]

I have spent a little time compiling links to threads about the Ebola outbreak in the interest of having all the links in one thread for future reference.

Please add links to new threads and articles of interest as the situation develops.

Thank You all for you participation.

[Black Agnes]

ld50 == lethal dose that kills 50%.

[Dark Wing]

This is the latest WHO Ebola data as of 31 August 2014 —

>>“As of 31 August 2014, 3685 (probable, confirmed and
>>suspected) cases and 1841 deaths have been reported...

Now assuming a 2-to-23 day period of infection, lets compare how may were sick 21-to-23 days ago using this 8 Aug 2014 WHO data:

http://www.afro.who.int/en/clusters-a-programmes/dpc/epidemic-a-pandemic-alert-and-response/outbreak-news/4241-ebola-virus-disease-west-africa-8-august-2014.html

>>As of 6 August 2014, the cumulative number of cases
>>attributed to EVD in the four countries stands at 1 779,
>>including 961 deaths

With the current data of _1841 deaths_ for the 31 Aug 2014 Who West Africa Ebola report...

...as compared to _ONLY 1,779 INFECTED_ as of the 8 Aug 2014 update.

I think we can safely say now that WHO is lying it's statistical ass off regards the lethality of the West Africa Ebola outbreak.

We are looking at something like a 90% Ebola death rate, not any 50% or 60%.

WHO is deliberately conflating the current death rate (apples) with the current infaction rate (Banana’s), as opposed to the infected population of three weeks ago (apples to apples).

[Covenantor]

Thanks...been reading waaay too many new acronyms lately.
;>)

[Shelayne]

Exactly.

[Dark Wing]

Its now too late.

Grim Ebola Prediction: Outbreak Is Unstoppable for Now

SEP 4, 2014 03:50 PM ET // BY RACHAEL RETTNER, LIVESCIENCE

http://news.discovery.com/human/health/grim-ebola-prediction-outbreak-is-unstoppable-for-now-140904.htm#mkcpgn=rssnws1

[Shelayne]

Yep. I think this is one of the reasons the CDC was trying to tamp down the “full PPE needed for Healthcare Workers around Ebola” recommendation, essentially saying that gloves, gowns, and mask really are enough, unless you are dealing with infected body fluids. No hospital will have enough PPE if it comes to that, and they are well aware of that. Every single HCW would (and should!) demand it, which would require how many changes of PPE per day? This would overwhelm our hospitals very quickly.

[steve86]

The LD50 of one Rx I take is roughly only about 8-10 pills. I definitely keep it out of reach of little kids!

[Covenantor]

Curious.

WHO updated the Ebola report on your link, but up until this moment WHO-Africa had not.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/ebola/en/

[Shelayne]

I think they read your post. ;^)

The Sept 4 date is on there now.

[Smokin' Joe]

MSF call for military medical help shows Ebola outbreak’s severity (medicin sans frontiers)

[Smokin' Joe]

Ebola virus disease outbreak – west Africa (1841 deaths, 3685 cases as of 8/31...new update soon)

[PA Engineer]

Third American With Ebola Evacuated to Nebraska

This kind of jump out:

One of the ways ELWA hospital tests patients for Ebola is by checking their temperature before they’re admitted. If they’re not running a fever, they’re treated as being free of the disease, he explained.

A fever is one of the first symptoms of Ebola infection. It’s the body’s way of beginning to mount a defense against the virus.

A patient with HIV, who has a weakened immune system, may not have been able to run a fever in response to the infection, and thus would have mistakenly been thought to be Ebola-free.

Sacra believes he may have performed a C-section on such a patient, his brother said.

[Jim Noble]

ID₅₀=dose of virions at which 50% of exposed become infected.

LD₅₀=dose of virions that kill 50% of hosts.

[GOPJ]

With the current data of - 1841 deaths - for the 31 Aug 2014 Who West Africa Ebola report... ...as compared to - ONLY 1,779 INFECTED - as of the 8 Aug 2014 update. I think we can safely say now that WHO is lying it's statistical ass off regards the lethality of the West Africa Ebola outbreak.

We are looking at something like a 90% Ebola death rate, not any 50% or 60%. WHO is deliberately conflating the current death rate (apples) with the current infaction rate (Banana’s), as opposed to the infected population of three weeks ago (apples to apples).

Interesting stuff - thanks for the ping Darkwing..

[exDemMom]

The case counts and death numbers are all cumulative. You can determine case fatality rate (CFR) only after a case has resolved with either cure or death.

We can’t calculate the CFR with only case and death data, since the outbreak is still on-going. If we knew how many of the people from the 8 August case counts actually survived, then we would be able to calculate a CFR with those case numbers.

We can still estimate the CFR even without knowing the survival numbers. 1841/3685=50% (rounded). This Ebola outbreak is mild, for Ebola.

[Smokin' Joe]

U.S. missionary with Ebola en route to Nebraska for treatment

[PA Engineer]

We can still estimate the CFR even without knowing the survival numbers. 1841/3685=50% (rounded). This Ebola outbreak is mild, for Ebola.

I think they have been calculating death ratios. I have a big problem with that. If a "pandemic" (that is what it is with multiple countries) is spreading, then the death ratio will be lower. As a pandemic winds down, then the ratio will increase.

This is the reason I have little faith in the WHO numbers. The infected is a SWAG even by WHO standards and of course I do not believe WHO has any standards.

[exDemMom]

The actual CFR might be a little higher than an estimate from the case and death counts, but not that much. Since the case count is cumulative, it includes those who recovered as well as the dead. The unresolved cases are only those that were added within the last couple of weeks and have not died but are still in danger of dying.

[Smokin' Joe]

A patient with HIV, who has a weakened immune system, may not have been able to run a fever in response to the infection, and thus would have mistakenly been thought to be Ebola-free.

Sacra believes he may have performed a C-section on such a patient, his brother said.

Wow. The hits just keep on coming.

[Covenantor]

Thanks for clarifying the acronyms for me.

ID50=dose of virions at which 50% of exposed become infected.
LD50=dose of virions that kill 50% of hosts