Thanks for posting this information on incubation times from the New England Journal of Medicine.
Has anyone seen data that suggests what factors may cause longer incubation times? I’m wondering if someone is exposed to a person in the earlier stages of the disease if that exposed person may exhibit a longer incubation time.
I would expect the longer incubation times are a factor of lower initial viral load. If the ID50 is 1-10 viral organisms, starting with that lower spectrum of load in the patient it will take longer for the virus to replicate and disperse throughout the body. If the initial viral load consisted of millions of viral organisms, what was mentioned as being the viral load in droplets for instance (500,000 to 1,000,000 organisms) could constitute a significant advantage for the virus and a 'leg up' resulting in shorter incubation.
I would suspect the route of infection to make a difference: through a wound vs. droplet inhaled or ingested vs. possibly transdermal contact (sweaty patient/infectee), vs. (possibly) fomite contact.
This is the end of the spectrum we least understand: it is the end where how little it takes to infect someone matters, and the route of infection may not be clear.