I'd say the chances are 100% it will get hit sometime in the next billion years.
“I’d say the chances are 100% it will get hit sometime in the next billion years.”
Well, I’M not hanging around to see.
Chances are virtually 100% that between 10 minutes from now and the next 500,000 years, we will be hit by a 1 km asteroid and between 10 minutes from now and the next 100 million years, we will be hit by an asteroid comparable to the one in size that triggered the KPg extinction 65 million years ago.
Chances are virtually 100% that between 10 minutes from now and the next 100,000 years Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 400 km3 of magma and between 10 minutes from now and the next 1 million years Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 3,200 km3 of magma; an event comparable to the Toba supereruption 75,000 years ago.
And sometime in the next 1 million years Betelgeuse will go supernova. At night, it will be brighter than the full moon.
True of nearly any event.
Betcha $5 you’re wrong.