From Space Weather on earlier CME
“Most of the storm cloud is heading north of the sun-Earth line, but not all. A fraction of the CME will deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field during the early hours of Sept. 12th. In the past few weeks, glancing blows from minor CMEs have sparked beautiful auroras around the Arctic Circle. This CME could spark even better displays. NOAA forecasters estimate a 79% (not a typo: 79%) chance of polar geomagnetic storming on Sept. 12th”
Looks like this one is moving faster. It was thought that an earlier CME had weakened the “path” and allowed the Carrington Event CME to travel faster.
Question: any opinions as to effect of both of these arriving about the same time?
The timing of the two isn’t helping, but to put it in perspective, the 1989 Quebec event was an estimated X15 flare. It was a series of CME’s /flares
The Carrington event was magnitudes higher that Quebec.
It wasnt known if the Carrington event had precursors.