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To: scouter

Let’s refresh on the whole “exponential” thing.

Some wit plotted the exponential increase of Ebola, on the assumption that it actually was exponential. Let’s see how exponential it behaves.

Mar, 2014 – Infected: 104 Dead: 62
Apr, 2014 – Infected: 203 Dead: 122
May, 2014 – Infected: 417 Dead: 250
Jun, 2014 – Infected: 898 Dead: 539
Jul, 2014 – Infected: 2,031 Dead: 1,218
Aug, 2014 – Infected: 4,821 Dead: 2,892
Sep, 2014 – Infected: 12,016 Dead: 7,210
Oct, 2014 – Infected: 31,448 Dead: 18,869
Nov, 2014 – Infected: 86,421 Dead: 51,853
Dec, 2014 – Infected: 249,365 Dead: 149,619
Jan, 2015 – Infected: 755,513 Dead: 453,308
Feb, 2015 – Infected: 2,403,461 Dead: 1,442,077
Mar, 2015 – Infected: 8,028,264 Dead: 4,816,958
Apr, 2015 – Infected: 28,157,589 Dead: 16,894,553
May, 2015 – Infected: 103,695,185 Dead: 62,217,111
Jun, 2015 – Infected: 400,969,208 Dead: 240,581,525
Jul, 2015 – Infected: 1,627,993,821 Dead: 976,796,293
Aug, 2015 – Infected: 6,940,388,486 Dead: 4,164,233,092


88 posted on 09/18/2014 11:19:16 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy ("Don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative." -Obama, 09-24-11)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
Some wit plotted the exponential increase of Ebola, on the assumption that it actually was exponential. Let’s see how exponential it behaves.

A lot depends on the exponent, doesn't it? Who knows what exponent he used. Not only that, but no one is saying it's going to play out as the projections are listed. But just because at some point the exponential increase can't be sustained doesn't mean it isn't increasing exponentially now, or will for the near future.

You're right... at some point the exponential increase will fade. But when? After 1,000 people have died? 2,000? 10,000? 100,000? 1,000,000? We know for sure it's sometime after 2,589.

You stated: It has probably reached near its peak already. What evidence is there of that? I've not seen any. All the evidence I've seen is that it's currently spreading at a rate of 2.962% per day, basing the calculations on the number of reported cases on September 1 vs. the number of reported cases on September 14:

3707 * 1.0296213 = 5418.

That's exponential increase. When will it end? Who knows? Neither you nor I, for sure. But it is clearly increasing exponentially now. To deny that is to ignore relatively simple math. And there is no reason I'm aware of to think that it won't continue to increase exponentially for the foreseeable future, which, admittedly, is something less than 1 year from now.

90 posted on 09/18/2014 2:38:48 PM PDT by scouter (As for me and my household... We will serve the LORD.)
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