Running The Ebola Numbers Based On What We Have Been Told

10/03/14

[IYAS9YAS]

The problem is that you’re using the same fatality rates for the U.S. and the same spread rate for the U.S. as you use for Africa. Ebola is spreading in countries which basically have no health care infrastructure, no hospitals, no disease control of any kind.

As opposed to what we've just witnessed in Dallas?

I'm not too certain that's wrong.

Also, travel in Africa is far lower than in the United States. That's why prior outbreaks were pretty much self-contained. They couldn't get anywhere else before the virus killed them. In the U.S., someone could get in a car and potentially infect 1,000s along any major freeway corridor within a week from one coast to the other, or within a day or two from Canada to Mexico.

[dynoman]

Some US Ebola theoretical calculations based on patient Zero

Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47

Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6

Actual as of November 16: United States - 4 cases, 1 death (two infections originated in the United States, one in Liberia and one in Guinea) http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/11/health/ebola-fast-facts/

[dynoman]

Some US Ebola theoretical calculations based on patient Zero:

Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47

Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6

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Actual December 2014: United States - 4 cases, 1 death

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html

[dynoman]

Ebola spread rate at current trend

Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652

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Actual December 2014 - Infected: 12,894 Dead: 7905

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html

[dynoman]

Quote;

Ebola spread rate at current trend
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973

Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6

---

Actual world total Feb 5 2105
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 22560 Dead 9019

Actual US
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 4 Dead 1

Source; http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html

[dynoman]

Correction using confirmed infections;

Actual world total Feb 5 2105
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 13888 Dead 9019

[dynoman]

Ebola spread rate at current trend
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306

Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6

---

Actual world total April 28, 2015
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 14931 Dead 10905

Actual US
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 4 Dead 1

Source; http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html

[dynoman]

Correction;

Ebola spread rate at current trend
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306

Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6

---

Actual world total April 28, 2015
April, 2015 - Infected: 14931 Dead 10905

Actual US
April, 2015 - Infected: 4 Dead 1

Source; http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html

[Steve Van Doorn]

Looks like NASA and their climate models
Thanks