Posted on 10/03/2014 6:55:30 AM PDT by Enlightened1
A projection for the Ebola outbreak way back when it first started in Africa...
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
and
Now here are the numbers for the USA starting with the guy confirmed in Texas..
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6
Ebola spread rate at current trend
Mar, 2014 - Infected: 104 Dead: 62
Apr, 2014 - Infected: 194 Dead: 116
May, 2014 - Infected: 360 Dead: 216
Jun, 2014 - Infected: 670 Dead: 402
Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,247 Dead: 748
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,319 Dead: 1,391
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 4,313 Dead: 2,588
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 8,022 Dead: 4,813
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 14,921 Dead: 8,953
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 96,016 Dead: 57,610
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 178,590 Dead: 107,154
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306
May, 2015 - Infected: 617,849 Dead: 370,709
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 1,149,199 Dead: 689,519
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 2,137,510 Dead: 1,282,506
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,975,768 Dead: 2,385,461
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 7,394,928 Dead: 4,436,957
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 13,754,567 Dead: 8,252,740
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 25,583,494 Dead: 15,350,096
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 47,585,299 Dead: 28,551,179
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 88,508,656 Dead: 53,105,193
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 164,626,099 Dead: 98,775,660
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 306,204,545 Dead: 183,722,727
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 569,540,453 Dead: 341,724,272
May, 2016 - Infected: 1,059,345,243 Dead: 635,607,146
Jun, 2016 - Infected: 1,970,382,153 Dead: 1,182,229,292
Jul, 2016 - Infected: 3,664,910,804 Dead: 2,198,946,482
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
--- October 2, 2014 Susupected: 7157 Confirmed: 3953 Dead: 3330<------------source CDC
Now here are the numbers for the USA starting with the guy confirmed in Texas..
Some US Ebola theoretical calculations based on patient Zero
--- Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI:3.47
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI:3.47
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47
This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher R0 of 3.47
If it's 2.60
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6
May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6
....but, according to a CDC spokesperson, this is “a very wimpy virus”.
Well Happy Friday to you too!
Right after all they said we have NOTHING to worry about!
LOL! Sorry :)
The problem is that you’re using the same fatality rates for the U.S. and the same spread rate for the U.S. as you use for Africa. Ebola is spreading in countries which basically have no health care infrastructure, no hospitals, no disease control of any kind. The situation in Europe and the U.S. is a bit different. Also I noticed you have 3 infections for September and 2 fatalities. I believe that totals should be zero fatalities shouldn’t it?
It will be interesting to refer back to this post a year from now.
....but, according to a CDC spokesperson, this is “a very wimpy virus”.
I suspect that not many will get it or die of it, btw. Time will tell.
Such statements do not fill one with loads of confidence in the CDC and government in general, to put it plainly they do not have our best interests at heart.
Right after all they said we have NOTHING to worry about!
Perhaps Ebola does not kill off that fast?
The death rate is any where between 70% to 85% is what I have heard. Thus, why it’s 2 out of 3.
The death rate is any where between 70% to 85% is what I have heard. Thus, why it’s 2 out of 3.
I would disagree slightly with the death trend. Note the crappy medical service of Africa, limited use of IV-solutions, no real antibiotics and marginal food being provided to those in the hospitals.
I would take a better guess that we will find that US care will result in a eighty-percent survival rate (older folks dying of course, those with other diseases like TB or HIV will not be able to beat the numbers, and kids under four with limited immune system). It might take six months...but our rates will go up and reflect on a better standard of healthcare.
Now, all of this said....here’s what bothers me. Let’s say you get it....you go to quarantine, and you get first-class care....where a month later you are released because you survived it. But four months later as you travel through some airport in Texas....you come into contract, and get round two of this. Your immune system was sorely tested last time. Will the antibiotics work the same, and is your body strong enough for round two? And if you make it through this episode....could you handle round three in five months time?
Bluntly.....stopping this at the border is absolutely necessary, or we will be facing Ebola on, and on, and on. And frankly, we don’t have resources to face a decade-long crisis with Ebola affecting forty million Americans yearly, with thirty-eight million surviving a bout.
The same once you are infected.
Of course the Spanish Flu pandemic only had a 2% fatality rate...
Right now in Sierra Leone 5 people are affected every hour according to one source out there. I imagine much of the 3rd world countries will eventually come here since our borders are wide open and.... exhaust out heath care industry.
I don't think we can absorb the entire third world? Furthermore, how many of them would bring in more infected people?
The same once you are infected.
Ebola is not aids. There are all sorts of experimental treatments that CURE.
The same once you are infected.
Well, since ebola is a virus, not a bacterium, antibiotics won’t do spit to cure it. Also, unless your round two is wildly mutated, you’ll probably be immune to it.
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