Ebola spread rate at current trend
Mar, 2014 - Infected: 104 Dead: 62
Apr, 2014 - Infected: 194 Dead: 116
May, 2014 - Infected: 360 Dead: 216
Jun, 2014 - Infected: 670 Dead: 402
Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,247 Dead: 748
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,319 Dead: 1,391
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 4,313 Dead: 2,588
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 8,022 Dead: 4,813
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 14,921 Dead: 8,953
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 96,016 Dead: 57,610
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 178,590 Dead: 107,154
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306
May, 2015 - Infected: 617,849 Dead: 370,709
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 1,149,199 Dead: 689,519
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 2,137,510 Dead: 1,282,506
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,975,768 Dead: 2,385,461
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 7,394,928 Dead: 4,436,957
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 13,754,567 Dead: 8,252,740
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 25,583,494 Dead: 15,350,096
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 47,585,299 Dead: 28,551,179
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 88,508,656 Dead: 53,105,193
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 164,626,099 Dead: 98,775,660
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 306,204,545 Dead: 183,722,727
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 569,540,453 Dead: 341,724,272
May, 2016 - Infected: 1,059,345,243 Dead: 635,607,146
Jun, 2016 - Infected: 1,970,382,153 Dead: 1,182,229,292
Jul, 2016 - Infected: 3,664,910,804 Dead: 2,198,946,482
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
--- October 2, 2014 Susupected: 7157 Confirmed: 3953 Dead: 3330<------------source CDC
Now here are the numbers for the USA starting with the guy confirmed in Texas..
Some US Ebola theoretical calculations based on patient Zero
--- Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI:3.47
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI:3.47
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47
This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher R0 of 3.47
If it's 2.60
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6
May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6
....but, according to a CDC spokesperson, this is “a very wimpy virus”.
Well Happy Friday to you too!
The problem is that you’re using the same fatality rates for the U.S. and the same spread rate for the U.S. as you use for Africa. Ebola is spreading in countries which basically have no health care infrastructure, no hospitals, no disease control of any kind. The situation in Europe and the U.S. is a bit different. Also I noticed you have 3 infections for September and 2 fatalities. I believe that totals should be zero fatalities shouldn’t it?
It will be interesting to refer back to this post a year from now.
I would disagree slightly with the death trend. Note the crappy medical service of Africa, limited use of IV-solutions, no real antibiotics and marginal food being provided to those in the hospitals.
I would take a better guess that we will find that US care will result in a eighty-percent survival rate (older folks dying of course, those with other diseases like TB or HIV will not be able to beat the numbers, and kids under four with limited immune system). It might take six months...but our rates will go up and reflect on a better standard of healthcare.
Now, all of this said....here’s what bothers me. Let’s say you get it....you go to quarantine, and you get first-class care....where a month later you are released because you survived it. But four months later as you travel through some airport in Texas....you come into contract, and get round two of this. Your immune system was sorely tested last time. Will the antibiotics work the same, and is your body strong enough for round two? And if you make it through this episode....could you handle round three in five months time?
Bluntly.....stopping this at the border is absolutely necessary, or we will be facing Ebola on, and on, and on. And frankly, we don’t have resources to face a decade-long crisis with Ebola affecting forty million Americans yearly, with thirty-eight million surviving a bout.
The bottom line is that we could have easily kept Ebola out of America and made all of these numbers irrelevant. Unfortunately, the government wanted to give Americans the opportunity to share in the “Ebola experience”.
So according to you almost half of America is going to die of Ebola in the next year and a half?
I've perceived a fog on hard numbers descending over the affected west African nations, aside from what can only be described as anecdotal asides in a handful of mostly Western news stories, most of these repetitions of week old or more figures.
If this is an actual phenomena, it could be credited to the governments there being overwhelmed, negation and other forms of disinformation, or both, of course.
Because you have your ear to the rail, as it were, are you also perceiving a darth of reported, hard numbers of infection and deaths?
Whom do you look to for your reliable sources, other than the WHO, for example?
Some US Ebola theoretical calculations based on patient Zero
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6
Actual as of November 16: United States - 4 cases, 1 death (two infections originated in the United States, one in Liberia and one in Guinea) http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/11/health/ebola-fast-facts/
Ebola spread rate at current trend
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652
Actual December 2014 - Infected: 12,894 Dead: 7905
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html
Quote;
Ebola spread rate at current trend
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973
Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6
Actual US
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 4 Dead 1
Source; http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html
Ebola spread rate at current trend
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306
Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6
Actual world total April 28, 2015
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 14931 Dead 10905
Actual US
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 4 Dead 1
Source; http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html