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A projection for the Ebola outbreak way back when it first started in Africa...

Ebola spread rate at current trend

Mar, 2014 - Infected: 104 Dead: 62

Apr, 2014 - Infected: 194 Dead: 116

May, 2014 - Infected: 360 Dead: 216

Jun, 2014 - Infected: 670 Dead: 402

Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,247 Dead: 748

Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,319 Dead: 1,391

Sep, 2014 - Infected: 4,313 Dead: 2,588

Oct, 2014 - Infected: 8,022 Dead: 4,813

Nov, 2014 - Infected: 14,921 Dead: 8,953

Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652

Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973

Feb, 2015 - Infected: 96,016 Dead: 57,610

Mar, 2015 - Infected: 178,590 Dead: 107,154

Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306

May, 2015 - Infected: 617,849 Dead: 370,709

Jun, 2015 - Infected: 1,149,199 Dead: 689,519

Jul, 2015 - Infected: 2,137,510 Dead: 1,282,506

Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,975,768 Dead: 2,385,461

Sep, 2015 - Infected: 7,394,928 Dead: 4,436,957

Oct, 2015 - Infected: 13,754,567 Dead: 8,252,740

Nov, 2015 - Infected: 25,583,494 Dead: 15,350,096

Dec, 2015 - Infected: 47,585,299 Dead: 28,551,179

Jan, 2016 - Infected: 88,508,656 Dead: 53,105,193

Feb, 2016 - Infected: 164,626,099 Dead: 98,775,660

Mar, 2016 - Infected: 306,204,545 Dead: 183,722,727

Apr, 2016 - Infected: 569,540,453 Dead: 341,724,272

May, 2016 - Infected: 1,059,345,243 Dead: 635,607,146

Jun, 2016 - Infected: 1,970,382,153 Dead: 1,182,229,292

Jul, 2016 - Infected: 3,664,910,804 Dead: 2,198,946,482

Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457

--- October 2, 2014 Susupected: 7157 Confirmed: 3953 Dead: 3330<------------source CDC

Now here are the numbers for the USA starting with the guy confirmed in Texas..

Some US Ebola theoretical calculations based on patient Zero

--- Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas

Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47

Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47

Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47

Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47

Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47

Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47

Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47

Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47

May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47

Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47

Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47

Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47

Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI:3.47

Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI:3.47

Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47

This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher R0 of 3.47

If it's 2.60

Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6

Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6

Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6

Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6

Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6

Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6

Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6

Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6

May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6

Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6

Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6

Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6

Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6

Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6

Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6

Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6

Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6

Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6

Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6

Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6

1 posted on 10/03/2014 6:55:30 AM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: Enlightened1

....but, according to a CDC spokesperson, this is “a very wimpy virus”.


2 posted on 10/03/2014 6:58:00 AM PDT by Girlene (Hey NSA!)
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To: Enlightened1

Well Happy Friday to you too!


3 posted on 10/03/2014 6:59:36 AM PDT by Blogger
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To: Enlightened1

The problem is that you’re using the same fatality rates for the U.S. and the same spread rate for the U.S. as you use for Africa. Ebola is spreading in countries which basically have no health care infrastructure, no hospitals, no disease control of any kind. The situation in Europe and the U.S. is a bit different. Also I noticed you have 3 infections for September and 2 fatalities. I believe that totals should be zero fatalities shouldn’t it?


6 posted on 10/03/2014 7:02:20 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: Enlightened1

It will be interesting to refer back to this post a year from now.


7 posted on 10/03/2014 7:04:44 AM PDT by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marylin vos Savant)
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To: Enlightened1

I would disagree slightly with the death trend. Note the crappy medical service of Africa, limited use of IV-solutions, no real antibiotics and marginal food being provided to those in the hospitals.

I would take a better guess that we will find that US care will result in a eighty-percent survival rate (older folks dying of course, those with other diseases like TB or HIV will not be able to beat the numbers, and kids under four with limited immune system). It might take six months...but our rates will go up and reflect on a better standard of healthcare.

Now, all of this said....here’s what bothers me. Let’s say you get it....you go to quarantine, and you get first-class care....where a month later you are released because you survived it. But four months later as you travel through some airport in Texas....you come into contract, and get round two of this. Your immune system was sorely tested last time. Will the antibiotics work the same, and is your body strong enough for round two? And if you make it through this episode....could you handle round three in five months time?

Bluntly.....stopping this at the border is absolutely necessary, or we will be facing Ebola on, and on, and on. And frankly, we don’t have resources to face a decade-long crisis with Ebola affecting forty million Americans yearly, with thirty-eight million surviving a bout.


13 posted on 10/03/2014 7:07:41 AM PDT by pepsionice
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To: Enlightened1
Someone's looking to spring into action soon.


15 posted on 10/03/2014 7:10:07 AM PDT by ScottinVA (We either destroy ISIS there... or fight them here. Pick one, America.)
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To: Enlightened1
We have an administration that is more concerned with looking compassionate on the world stage than with insuring the safety of its citizens. Obamaism is being rejected because it is political-centric with no interest in protecting those who are paying the bills.
17 posted on 10/03/2014 7:10:59 AM PDT by RedEyeJack
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To: Enlightened1

The bottom line is that we could have easily kept Ebola out of America and made all of these numbers irrelevant. Unfortunately, the government wanted to give Americans the opportunity to share in the “Ebola experience”.


26 posted on 10/03/2014 7:23:33 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Stop flooding our schools with unaccompanied illegal aliens. Do it for the children!)
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To: Enlightened1

So according to you almost half of America is going to die of Ebola in the next year and a half?


35 posted on 10/03/2014 7:35:30 AM PDT by ansel12
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To: Enlightened1
How would these numbers change as the virus mutates?
As a deadly virus like Ebola mutates does it become in the long run less deadly like for example Flu virus'?
40 posted on 10/03/2014 7:48:07 AM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: Enlightened1
Interesting, useful and appreciated, as always.

I've perceived a fog on hard numbers descending over the affected west African nations, aside from what can only be described as anecdotal asides in a handful of mostly Western news stories, most of these repetitions of week old or more figures.

If this is an actual phenomena, it could be credited to the governments there being overwhelmed, negation and other forms of disinformation, or both, of course.

Because you have your ear to the rail, as it were, are you also perceiving a darth of reported, hard numbers of infection and deaths?

Whom do you look to for your reliable sources, other than the WHO, for example?

53 posted on 10/03/2014 8:18:05 AM PDT by Prospero (Si Deus trucido mihi, ego etiam fides Deus.)
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To: dynoman

Some US Ebola theoretical calculations based on patient Zero

Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47

Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6

Actual as of November 16: United States - 4 cases, 1 death (two infections originated in the United States, one in Liberia and one in Guinea) http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/11/health/ebola-fast-facts/


62 posted on 11/22/2014 10:23:07 AM PST by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marylin vos Savant)
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To: All

Ebola spread rate at current trend

Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652


Actual December 2014 - Infected: 12,894 Dead: 7905

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html


64 posted on 01/02/2015 7:41:47 AM PST by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marylin vos Savant)
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To: All

Quote;

Ebola spread rate at current trend
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973

Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6


Actual world total Feb 5 2105
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 22560 Dead 9019

Actual US
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 4 Dead 1

Source; http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html


65 posted on 02/07/2015 12:24:58 AM PST by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marylin vos Savant)
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To: Enlightened1

Ebola spread rate at current trend
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306

Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6


Actual world total April 28, 2015
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 14931 Dead 10905

Actual US
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 4 Dead 1

Source; http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html


67 posted on 05/01/2015 11:47:40 AM PDT by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marylin vos Savant)
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