At the risk of being labeled a “hope troll”, I think the GOP will win big in the Senate races. A scenario of 7 pickups is very likely - Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, and Louisiana).
If the things break our way, we may see 10 pickups - Brown has a real shot in NH, Hagan’s re-election in NC isn’t a done deal just yet, and I honestly believe Roberts will eke out a squeaker in Kansas.
Even if none of the latter three come true, that still leaves a net pickup of 6, if my math is correct.
The fly in the ointment, as always, will be recounts. If there’s a whisker thin margin of victory, we’ll see the lawyers and the partisan hacks crawl out of the woodwork.
KY and GA are holds, not pick ups.
But WV, MT, and SD are GOP pickups.
That leaves us with a 53-47 majority if we get AK, AR, LA, CO, Iowa, and don’t lose Kansas.
I think GA is safe.
If the national GOP momentum is really strong then we get NC and/or NH which could bring NM and VA into play (if those are even close then it’s a big GOP night).
So if the Dems are only implementing their usual fraud then I don’t see them successfully stealing more than maybe one race- which will be obvious- although nothing done in the aftermath.
See Al Franker for proof of that.
Also something that seems to be forgotten- the 2016 map will NOT favor us- so we need as much padding as possible.
If we get a solid nominee and the presidency then we will need at least 50 in the senate. So every seat we get this time is critical down the road.
Not to nitpick, but GA is already GOP. It would be a gain for Dems if we lost...same with KY.
However, I agree with you on the other states, but you left out a key 3: SD, MT and WV are locks. Give us AK, AR, CO, IA, LA (run-off)...that is 8 seats.
WE will hold KS and pick up NC and NH. I think 10 seat gain and gains in the house.