This limited discussion of the Pearl Harbor conspiracy theorists covered only the likelihood the attack would be considered probable and/or of such a scale. Gordon W. Prange in writing At Dawn We Slept presented arguably the most scholarly, well researched volume on the attack from both the Japanese and American perspectives. The book ends with an eleven page summary refuting a host of revisionist imaginings including internal political collusion, secret treaties and international intrigues.
Yes, volumes have been written.
They simply leave out a few key things, which I don’t have time to dig up links on.
Simple common sense, however, is enough to see:
The top elites of the US, and their man, FDR, and the top elites of the UK, and their man, Churchill, desperately wanted the US to enter the war.
A radical shift in US public opinion needed to be manufactured for this to happen.
And it was pretty obvious that war was inevitable and the US was preparing for war.
If there was no Japanese attack, US public opinion would not have supported war.
Of course, if the Japanese did attack, it’s only sensible to imagine that they would try to strike a knockout blow in the first round to US Pacific military operations.
There weren’t many other realistic options for how the story would play out.
However, if top US leadership prepared adequately and the attack damage was minimized, i.e., the battle was relatively “even”, US public opinion would not have been so cranked up over retribution in the coming war. Having such a disaster happen provided the carte blanche the planners were looking for from the American people, paving the way for an all-out war effort.