Doubtful. While Betelgeuse is clearly within its death throes, it is not the type of star that goes nova. It will, over time, shrink as it uses up the last of its fuel and wind up a white dwarf and eventually a dark cinder of heavy materials.
From what I understand most estimates of the solar mass of Betelgeuse exceeds the minimum required for a supernova although as you mention if the lower estimated are true then it will just fade away.
Per wikipedia (for what that’s worth), there’s still an expectation that it will go nova:
“Like many young stars in Orion whose mass is greater than 10 \begin{smallmatrix}M_\odot\end{smallmatrix}, Betelgeuse will use its fuel quickly and not live long. On the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, Betelgeuse has moved off the main sequence and has swelled and cooled to become a red supergiant. Although young, Betelgeuse has probably exhausted the hydrogen in its core—unlike its OB cousins born about the same time—causing it to contract under the force of gravity into a hotter and denser state. As a result, it has begun to fuse helium into carbon and oxygen producing enough radiation to unfurl its outer envelopes of hydrogen and helium. Its mass and luminosity are such that the star will eventually fuse higher elements through neon, magnesium, sodium, and silicon all the way to iron, at which point it will probably collapse and explode as a type II supernova.[60][95]”
I remember reading that Betelgeuse will undergo a supernova (type I or II?) and become a neutron star or a black hole. In other words, it will go BOOM eventually.