But again, by league average you’ve got a 60% chance of converting 4th and 1 if you go for it. Be bold. Bold coaches that go for it are playing for the Lombardi, McCarthy is not. No assumptions at all, just looking at trends. And of course one of those trends is that McCarthy went for it in the divisional round and advanced, and didn’t in the conferences and lost. McCarthy has a long history of calling plays to avoid losing and has 1 trip to the SB with a QB generally considered the best in the game today.
And say the Packers didn’t make it, so Seattle starts with the ball on their own 1-yard line, odds are the way the two teams were playing at the time, GB would have gotten the ball right back in great field position.