There’s really nothing new about it the strategy. What’s really happened is that the east coast horse owners have no interest in the TC. They’re professionals, horses for them are investments, they run them for profit, and they have no need to join the circus that is the Derby, they tend to run at the Peter Pan instead (last weekend). Meanwhile there’s a bunch of west coast owners that THINK they want the TC but are unwilling to do what it takes to properly prepare their horses (no horse has ever won the TC that didn’t previously win at Belmont). They’ve taken over the Derby, making it an over crowded field none of the pros want to race at. And the basically nobody but the Derby winner cares about the Preakness anymore, so they win that one easily. Then lose to the pros at Belmont.
Very insightful post. I just researched all the Preakness winners since 1999 that had a chance to win the Triple Crown and that finished the Belmont Stakes lost to horses at Belmont that did not run in the Preakness that year.
Summary:
1999 Charismatic 3rd to Lemon Drop Kid
2002 War Emblem 8th to Sarava
2003 Funny Cide 3rd to Empire Maker
2004 Smarty Jones 2nd to Birdstone
2014 California Chrome 4th to Tonalist
I’m guessing we should be looking at this type of horse to defeat American Pharoah at Belmont this year.