Joe Bastardi ping.
You may need to watch this one twice, but this is what I got out of it.
El Nino-caused low pressure in East Pac. High pressure tropical south of Florida...Causing less hurricane activity than expected. System west Florida gulf could cross over, come out east coast and intensify, but there’s no way to tell now. If, while system is working its way across to the east coast, any kind of a hurricane comes in, the two could combine, which is a similar situation to Sandy, where a storm came in from the north and combined with a low-intensity hurricane.
El Nino’s influence on winter will probably be weaker than the ‘97-’98 El Nino because, although the SOI may be the same, there just isn’t the same amount of warm water piled up against Peru.
And there you have it.
I need a beer.