You are way off.
Trump might lose a few points, but it won’t move much. Cruz and Rubio both will pick up some support, but that just clarifies the fight for the second, third, and fourth slots.
There are three tickets coming out of Iowa. If you hold those tickets, you have to finish in the top four of New Hampshire to continue the ride.
Trump gets first place, probably at 31%. Cruz I think moves hard into second and will get around 14%. Rubio will move up and be in the 13% range. Who comes in fourth? Good question, and I think it will be Christie at about 11%. But he didn’t win a ticket in Iowa and without getting a win in New Hampshire, he won’t be able to last.
As long as none of the top three makes any huge blunders, I think New Hampshire is just an endurance test, and South Carolina will be more important.
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson and Christie (maybe) will be in South Carolina, but only two make it out in good shape. If it is within 2% between 1st and 2nd, a third candidate might be able to challenge on Super Tuesday. But I am thinking by that time, we will know who the final two standing are.
We’ll see if Rubio can stand up now to the media scrutiny that is going to come. Carson and Fiorina had their surges that ended just as fast once they were exposed to the light.