Posted on 03/03/2016 7:52:05 AM PST by Be Careful
I think it is VERY possible for Trump to reach the 1236 delegate threshold. If he doesn’t reach that number, and the GOPe tries shenanigans to get a RINO such as Kasich or Rubio in, I would hope that Cruz & Trump would have repaired their relationship to the degree needed for them to effectively negate GOPe tricks.
I predict that if he doesn’t get the delegates he goes 3rd party before the convention. The GOP has already hindered him in every way possible....they’ve already broken their “pledge”.
[full disclosure - I am a Cruz supporter]
Prior to Iowa I conducted an analysis on the delegate math. I used the following assumptions:
- RealClearPolitics average polling data
- Proportional states split by the percentages in the poll
- Winner take all states awarded to the poll leader
- Hybred states and states with a minimum percentage were awarded proportionally but the delegates that would have gone to those candidates that did not make the minimum percentage (again by poll percentage) were awarded to the poll leader.
Under this math, Trump goes to the convention with about 1,300 delegates. Enough to win on the first round. I did not do an analysis of the number of states but as of the Super Tuesday results this does not look like it will be a problem. Also, ST acutally confirmed my original prediction to me though it ended up being slightly stronger for Trump than I thought.
In short, it is Trumps to win unless there is a major shift in the voting such as all the other candidates aligning behind on other candidate.
17 Winner take all and 7 more winner take most states to go.
He can go it in his sleep.
He is already running 3rd party - Inside the Republican party.
Excellent analysis, please repost as needed so folks see this
The term is not antiquated.
Brokered convention
In United States politics, a brokered convention is a situation in which no single candidate has secured a pre-existing majority of delegates (whether those selected by primary elections and caucuses, or superdelegates) prior to the first official vote for a political party’s presidential candidate at its nominating convention.
(Definition from Bing.)
Not a problem at all on the 8 states. He already has majority delegates in 5. He won majorities in SC, TN, AL, MA, GA. He only needs 3 more majority delegations and will win them when states go winner take all if not sooner. Cruz, Rubio and Kasich at this point, have no viable path to securing majorities in any future states. Only Cruz has a majority state in Texas, where he has 91 of the 151 delegates. He has no chance for majorities anywhere else at this point. Trump will sew this up somewhere around April 26th which is after NY and when CT, DE, PA vote. He’s fine.
Nate Silver is wrong:
50%+1refers to DELEGATES, not Popular Vote
Here is a good excerpt from a previous post:
The critical language of Rule 40:
A candidate shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states before their name may be entered into nomination.
As we can see, the majority in question is delegates, not popular vote.
So let’s analyze:
Iowa, 30 delegates, Cruz winner, allotted 8, not a qualifying state.
New Hampshire, 23 delegates, Trump winner, allotted 11, not a qualifying state.
South Carolina, 50 delegates, Trump winner, allotted 50, SC is a qualifying win for Trump.
Nevada, 30 delegates, Trump winner, allotted 14, not a qualifying state.
Summary: Thus far Trump has 1 of the 8 required majority delegations. Cruz has 0 of 8. The three non-winners of course have 0 qualifying state delegations.
Trump and Cruz NEED TO repair their relationship for the sake of the country!!!! Cruz would be a Great VP but he needs to tone down the bashing of Trump!!!!
Nates page has a state by state tracker for each candidate to get to a majority.
It’s a good analysis on that count.
You are right...they will sacrifice all the down stream elections, down to the teeniest tiniest community elections as well.....truly, they can’t see past their rage.
Trump has them cornered like a beast fighting for its life.
I’m starting to think it doesn’t matter. Either he finds a way to get republican leadership and donors on board or he won’t be president. They don’t care about rules and they will do everything they can to stop him. If they decide it’s not politically smart to make last minute rule changes they’ll just support Hillary. Trump can beat the republican establishment. And he can beat Hillary. But it’s asking too much to expect him to beat both of them and the media and millions of socialist voters at the same time.
Hopefully he’s as good a negotiator as I hope. Whether he does it by picking off individuals (e.g. Christie, Sessions) until the RNC has to give in or dealing directly with the top he’ll need to get agreement. The elite hate the voters but I think Trump can make a deal where they at least put up with us instead of attacking us.
[unless Cruz drops out really soon...And since he did well on Super Tuesday I doubt he will. ]
Trump has given Cruz and followers like me ZERO reason to drop out. The writing may be on te wall that Trump will get the nomination, BUT now the negotiating game is in play. What will Trump have to guarantee to Cruz to get the last delegates?
I’m resigned to Trump. What I am not resigned to is a Trump rubber stamp. And he did it to himself.
Cruz 7 of those 35.
Rubio 8 of those 35.
Kasich 8 of those 35.
No. You are wrong. Trump has 5 majority delegations. SC, GA, MA, TN and AL. You conveniently forgot to include ST results in your analysis.
Yes! you are correct....and happily so. I am really glad I posted this post. Let’s just hope that Trump can capture the 1236 delegates.
PS.....what is ‘ST’? I couldn’t forget it because I don’t know what that is.
Super Tuesday.
I don't think it works that way.
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