Posted on 03/03/2016 7:52:05 AM PST by Be Careful
Can anyone project the math? I cannot.....and am growing in despair that Trump cannot achieve this.....thus a brokered convention and a Rino candidate.
Technically yes.
Technically Kasich could win enough delegates still — though it’s unlikely.
There are too many scenarios. Trump has under-performed in lots of races. Cruz has the best chance of taking the nomination or forcing a brokered convention.
It’s politics. Anything can happen.
8 states over 50%? I really doubt it, unless Cruz drops out really soon...And since he did well on Super Tuesday I doubt he will.
FYI
Super Tuesday Results & GOP Analysis
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3404300/posts
There is a great analysis of 538 analysis posted yesterday.
It tracks target delegates in each state for each candidate.
FWIW Trump is the only candidate thus far tracking above the line.
And he has 5 of the required 8 majority delegations.
He will get the magic 8.
1237 is the only remaining question.
It’s NOT Majority popular vote wins, it’s 8 majority delegations.
Trump has 5.
Cruz has 1.
Everyone else is 0fer
The ‘math’ can’t be accurately projected from mostly smaller proportional states to the big winner take all states later. Not to mention each state having its own set of rules for allocating delegate votes.
If it’s obvious that Rubio or Cruz won’t be the nominee, I imagine a lot of their supporters will stay home in later primaries.
Probably.
Florida and Ohio are the key. Do not despair just yet. Hang tough the curcial battles will be the next 2 weeks.
We need to show up with pitchforks and signs with old time cartoons of politicians being tarred and feathered.
OH, that’s a horse of a different color.
Even if there is a brokered convention it would be suicide for the GOP not to nominate whoever finished first.
Even if they don’t care about the presidency, they still need people to turn out to keep their majority in congress.
It is 8 states with over 50% of the delegates, not votes.
Yes, Trump will win the nomination if he continues to win primaries/delegates at his current rate. Ted Cruz could win the nomination but will have to improve his vote totals to do so.
Please stop using antiquated terms like “brokered convention.” There are no brokers who control state delegations as in the distant past. Party nominations are won through the primary process.
You give up too easily:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3404617/posts
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3404345/posts
Remember that it is 8 states with more than 50% of delegates, not votes.
WHAT ? If Trump gets 1237 delegates, he’ll get the 8 states by default. After 3/15, doesn’t winner get all the delegates of the states that he wins?
I support Cruz... but if we get to the convention and he doesn’t have enough to win, I would think (hope) that he would cede his delegates to Trump rather than let the GOPe choose the nominee in their smoke-filled room.
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