There is a great analysis of 538 analysis posted yesterday.
It tracks target delegates in each state for each candidate.
FWIW Trump is the only candidate thus far tracking above the line.
And he has 5 of the required 8 majority delegations.
He will get the magic 8.
1237 is the only remaining question.
Nate Silver is wrong:
50%+1refers to DELEGATES, not Popular Vote
Here is a good excerpt from a previous post:
The critical language of Rule 40:
A candidate shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states before their name may be entered into nomination.
As we can see, the majority in question is delegates, not popular vote.
So let’s analyze:
Iowa, 30 delegates, Cruz winner, allotted 8, not a qualifying state.
New Hampshire, 23 delegates, Trump winner, allotted 11, not a qualifying state.
South Carolina, 50 delegates, Trump winner, allotted 50, SC is a qualifying win for Trump.
Nevada, 30 delegates, Trump winner, allotted 14, not a qualifying state.
Summary: Thus far Trump has 1 of the 8 required majority delegations. Cruz has 0 of 8. The three non-winners of course have 0 qualifying state delegations.