Technically yes.
Technically Kasich could win enough delegates still — though it’s unlikely.
There are too many scenarios. Trump has under-performed in lots of races. Cruz has the best chance of taking the nomination or forcing a brokered convention.
It’s politics. Anything can happen.
8 states over 50%? I really doubt it, unless Cruz drops out really soon...And since he did well on Super Tuesday I doubt he will.
FYI
Super Tuesday Results & GOP Analysis
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3404300/posts
There is a great analysis of 538 analysis posted yesterday.
It tracks target delegates in each state for each candidate.
FWIW Trump is the only candidate thus far tracking above the line.
And he has 5 of the required 8 majority delegations.
He will get the magic 8.
1237 is the only remaining question.
The ‘math’ can’t be accurately projected from mostly smaller proportional states to the big winner take all states later. Not to mention each state having its own set of rules for allocating delegate votes.
If it’s obvious that Rubio or Cruz won’t be the nominee, I imagine a lot of their supporters will stay home in later primaries.
Probably.
Florida and Ohio are the key. Do not despair just yet. Hang tough the curcial battles will be the next 2 weeks.
We need to show up with pitchforks and signs with old time cartoons of politicians being tarred and feathered.
Even if there is a brokered convention it would be suicide for the GOP not to nominate whoever finished first.
Even if they don’t care about the presidency, they still need people to turn out to keep their majority in congress.
Yes, Trump will win the nomination if he continues to win primaries/delegates at his current rate. Ted Cruz could win the nomination but will have to improve his vote totals to do so.
Please stop using antiquated terms like “brokered convention.” There are no brokers who control state delegations as in the distant past. Party nominations are won through the primary process.
You give up too easily:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3404617/posts
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3404345/posts
I support Cruz... but if we get to the convention and he doesn’t have enough to win, I would think (hope) that he would cede his delegates to Trump rather than let the GOPe choose the nominee in their smoke-filled room.
I think it is VERY possible for Trump to reach the 1236 delegate threshold. If he doesn’t reach that number, and the GOPe tries shenanigans to get a RINO such as Kasich or Rubio in, I would hope that Cruz & Trump would have repaired their relationship to the degree needed for them to effectively negate GOPe tricks.
I predict that if he doesn’t get the delegates he goes 3rd party before the convention. The GOP has already hindered him in every way possible....they’ve already broken their “pledge”.
[full disclosure - I am a Cruz supporter]
Prior to Iowa I conducted an analysis on the delegate math. I used the following assumptions:
- RealClearPolitics average polling data
- Proportional states split by the percentages in the poll
- Winner take all states awarded to the poll leader
- Hybred states and states with a minimum percentage were awarded proportionally but the delegates that would have gone to those candidates that did not make the minimum percentage (again by poll percentage) were awarded to the poll leader.
Under this math, Trump goes to the convention with about 1,300 delegates. Enough to win on the first round. I did not do an analysis of the number of states but as of the Super Tuesday results this does not look like it will be a problem. Also, ST acutally confirmed my original prediction to me though it ended up being slightly stronger for Trump than I thought.
In short, it is Trumps to win unless there is a major shift in the voting such as all the other candidates aligning behind on other candidate.
Not a problem at all on the 8 states. He already has majority delegates in 5. He won majorities in SC, TN, AL, MA, GA. He only needs 3 more majority delegations and will win them when states go winner take all if not sooner. Cruz, Rubio and Kasich at this point, have no viable path to securing majorities in any future states. Only Cruz has a majority state in Texas, where he has 91 of the 151 delegates. He has no chance for majorities anywhere else at this point. Trump will sew this up somewhere around April 26th which is after NY and when CT, DE, PA vote. He’s fine.
I’m starting to think it doesn’t matter. Either he finds a way to get republican leadership and donors on board or he won’t be president. They don’t care about rules and they will do everything they can to stop him. If they decide it’s not politically smart to make last minute rule changes they’ll just support Hillary. Trump can beat the republican establishment. And he can beat Hillary. But it’s asking too much to expect him to beat both of them and the media and millions of socialist voters at the same time.
Hopefully he’s as good a negotiator as I hope. Whether he does it by picking off individuals (e.g. Christie, Sessions) until the RNC has to give in or dealing directly with the top he’ll need to get agreement. The elite hate the voters but I think Trump can make a deal where they at least put up with us instead of attacking us.
Yes he can. This stuff is just stupid at this point.